Tunisia - What next?

The events of Tunisia have stirred the whole world and have raised questions about the future of Tunisia, the Arab world, and the developing world's bastions of stability in the cyclical boom of 90s and early 2000s. As the events keep unfolding in Tunisia, the world awaits answers to four key questions.

What Happened?

Whether what happened was a consequence of something deep rooted or was it a knee-jerk reaction is yet to be seen. Arab world, rewinding back 4-5 decades or so, has a tendency for knee-jerk revolutions without any unifying agenda or leadership. Whether what happened this time was a repeat of 60s or is it a more aware revolution with a defined set of compatible and workable ideals is yet to be seen.

Another perspective on events, and with significant credibility, is that the Army in Tunisia realizing that the anger on streets is getting out of hand decided to make Bin Ali the scapegoat. If this is true then the success of the revolution in achieving its objectives will be determined by the steam in the revolution. Based on past precedence of such scenarios, most likely both sides will have to compromise and the tug of war will continue for years between the army and those who want to break the status quo.

What Next for Tunisia?

Tunisia has four possible paths from where it is. First the revolutionaries could succeed and Tunisia moves to become a pluralistic, liberal democracy and the forces of status quo get wiped out from the power structure completely. If this happens, the country will slowly but surely start to develop its institutions and leadership will start emerging in a country where till now no viable consensus alternative to Bin Ali can be seen. However, because of lack of centralized leadership among opposition and absence of a clear national agenda, this outcome though the most desirable for the people of Tunisia is least likely.

Then there is the real threat that in the chaos that has ensued, the militant Islamists will hijack the movement and attempt to takeover the government. This is exactly what happened in Iranian revolution where a revolution by the combined opposition was hijacked by Ayatullahs for they were the only opposition with guns. Though Tunisian society is liberal compared to its neighbors and does not have strong radical Islamist elements, the presence of militant radical Islamist movements in its neighborhood make this threat a potent one for Tunisia.

It might just be that when the steam of revolution subsides, the current establishment regains complete control of the situation through new faces. This will be the real test of Tunisian revolution and should be a reason enough for the opposition parties to come up with a minimum common agenda.

Last scenario will be a compromise between the ruling elite and the revolutionaries in which the ruling elite will give concessions to the opposition and give them a share of the power structure. From there on, how much the opposition proceeds towards a completely democratic Tunisia with strong institutions and a representative rule will depend on the unity of Tunisians as well as the vision of the leadership at the helm of affairs. If other examples are anything to go by such transition is always a painful process with a lot of disappointments along the way. To reach their desired goal of a democratic Tunisia, the Tunisians will have to be ready for disappointments and will have to be patient for the system to work and flourish. It will be high time for international players, particularly United States and Europe to back the representative government in Tunisia. The path will be hard to travel but seems the only viable route for people of Tunisia to claim their place in the world. If Tunisia descents further into chaos, this will not only be a blow for progressive forces in the Middle East but will also be dangerous for the continent in the north of Tunisia. Just when in the past, the western governments, particularly the European ones, seemed complacent with Bin Ali regime and the status quo; for their own interests ranging from curbing illegal immigration and drugs into Europe to fighting radical Islam, they will have to side with a liberal democratic Tunisia. This gives me hope of transformation of Tunisia into a liberal democratic nation.

Will it Spill over to other Arab Nations?

The revolution has been cheered by almost the entire youth in the Arab world. It is unclear whether this support will translate into similar attempts in other Arab countries or not. One thing is however clear, the ideal of Pan-Arabism was never dead and is back with full force. Whether this idea remains a nationalistic idea or gets influenced by Islamist movements is yet to be seen. It seems that the revolution spells trouble for non-oil importing nations more than it does for the oil-rich nations; with most vulnerable being the North African neighbors of Tunisia. Though not vulnerable immediately by the events, the real threat for the oil-rich Arab nations is the hijacking of the movement by Islamists for they have the strongest presence of militant Islam with in their frontiers. 

These events are a wakeup call for autocratic regimes of Arab world who have mastered the art of suppressing their masses and have created crony-centric economies that have severely marginalized the majority of have-nots.  It is about time that the governments themselves start introducing wide-ranging political and economic reforms aimed at representation and inclusion. In absence of these, the chaos will make them more and more vulnerable to the forces of change. 

Next few years will be Arab world's real test. The outcome will be determined less by the actions of the ruling elites and more by the vision and wisdom of the masses. The ruling elite and masses can embrace the progressive ideals and be part of the modern world or can fall into the hands of the forces of radicalism and oppression. There is no choice for Arabs but progress and the smoother the Arabs make this transition the better it will be for them and for the rest of us.

How will the governments cope with rising inflation?

With the excess liquidity present in the global financial system as a result of bailouts and the inflation expectation built into the prices of energy and food, high inflation is likely to persist in most parts of the developing world. Countries like India, China and oil-exporting countries have some cushion to absorb the impact of this rapid inflation through subsidies. For the rest of developing world, the inflation will be a threat for the political and economic systems. If not dealt properly, the threat has a potential to drag the world into a crisis that can reverse the progress many decades backward. The nations of the world are already late in planning for the crisis awaiting us. They need to start acting now or the chaos might lead us to destination none of us desired.