Thank you, President Zardari!

Thank you Sir for leading Pakistan on the way to constitutional reform which has seen it get rid of legacy of decades of autocracy. Thank you for presiding over an economic restructuring that leads to more even distribution of resources between urban and rural and between north and south. Thank you for steering Pakistan though its worst economic years and worst energy shortages with minimum of damage. And Thank you for standing up against the terrorists while risking your own life.
Thank you for your initiatives on women's rights. Thank you for your voice for minorities and thank you for being there for all liberal and freedom causes. Thank you for the vision and stamina to stick to the politics of reconciliation and thank you for demonstrating that a successful democracy is about inclusion and cooperation above anything else.
Thank you for defending Pakistan against the terrorists and thank you for protecting its interest on international forums. Thank you for your efforts to restore the civil-military balance. Thank you for defending our Armed Forces when their image was at an all time low. And yes, thank you for saving institutions from being destroyed by their own madness.
Thank you for bearing with your opponents with patience and demonstrating the significance of tolerance. Thank you for demonstrating freedom of press amid smear campaigns against your person. Thank you for your belief in liberties and freedom and thank you for spreading it.
And above all Thank you for holding together PPP and Pakistan when many thought they had buried them with the corpse of BB. Thank you Sir! Stay healthy for the struggle left is still longer than the road that stretches out ahead. Thank You!

Prediction Time

After an eventful day, Prediction Time. No inside info. Based on my analysis.

• Yousaf Raza Gillani will have the longest term of any Prime Minister in the history of Pakistan yet.
• #SC will not be able to harm President or the system on account of #MemoGate or #NRO.
• Army will feel compelled to protect the President in #MemoGate.
• In next 6 months, civil-military imbalance will have significant changes.
• In near future, there will be a party hostile to Chinese' trade surplus and influence in Pakistan.
• In near future, if it ever comes to showdown between US and anyone, in final tally Pakistan will be in US Column.
• Next Election is the last election in which #PMLN will contest with perception of a significant player.
• #PTI wave will be the strongest in Central Punjab and Army Belt (Attock, Khoshab, Jhelum, Chakwal).
• PPP-Sherpao will be the most significant player (significant may not be the largest) in #KP
• Imran Khan (PTI) might not be the largest Right-wing party by no of seats yet he will remain central in new right-wing politics.
• If Imran Khan manages to lure Arbab Rahim in #Sindh and Sherpao in #KP, #PTI will be the central right-wing national party in the system.
• #Lahore will have #PTI as the single largest party with a 3-way split mandate.
• Spending money on media (except for good paid ads) will be bad investment. Media has little influence over voters.

Nawaz Sharif will blame everything for his downfall when he himself is sole responsible. (It's not a prediction but an observation).

• Peak of Anti-American sentiment in Pakistan will end starting early 2013.
• There will be #Basant!
• Imran Khan will have a good show in Karachi on Dec 25th.
• Religious right & MQM's effort to replace ANP w/ PTI in Pashtun Karachi will fail.
• Imran Khan has more potential as Urdu Speaking's leader than Pashtuns'.
• Shah Mahmood Qureshi will lose his seat in #Multan but will win one from #Lahore.
• #BilawalBhutto will not be a key player for #PPP in next election. His bid begins in 2017. (God protect him and his family!)
• Politics of #Pakistan, in foreseeable future, will revolve around two Jawai(s) (Punjabi word). #Babay

In national interest and in interest of Peace and Stability, I withhold prediction on outcome of next general elections.

Let Pakistan Move beyond Old Establishment Order

As the elections approach, the talk of establishment's meddling in political system is resonating again. Only today, two statements by two of the leading political leaders of the country hint at establishment's (read security establishment's) role in country's politics. Both Nawaz Sharif and Ch. Shujat Hussain today hinted at hidden hands' intervention in political space. This follows a series of acquisitions that security establishment or elements in it have been at the center of Imran Khan's rise and PTI's successive political activities. This all is not only unpleasant and unfortunate but also seems a waste of energy on part of those trying to engineer politics. What Pakistan needs is to move beyond the existing notion of establishment to create a more broad based, all inclusive establishment. The new establishment will comprise a civil-military compromise on key national security issues where Army will have a decisive say in military, combat-security, and military administration issues while Army's security considerations and civilians' considerations vis-a-vis economic and trade relations and other foreign policy issues will define the core of national security policy. The players in Pakistan's power politics, includng Army, will be damaged heavily if they do not succumb to this emerging reality.
On none the responsibility of establishment of the new order of civil-military relationship is more than on Army and PPP. For its part Army must realize that time to create and recreate artificial alternatives to popular leadership is over. If they fail to come to terms with this fact, for elements within Army, the failing of Imran Khan led alliance in the next general election to secure a sizable share of seats will make the reality clearer. In all likelihood, it will be 3rd or 4th largest bloc in the next elections. Also, past four years must have shed many of Army's fears of nation's leadership's vulnerabilities on national security. Let me take the liberty to say that the views of civilian and military leadership of the country have never been closer on the national security outlook. More importantly, in past four years, Pakistan has experienced the emergence of a mechanism where the Army's key concerns vis-a-vis security get addressed with civilian leadership taking the bulk of brunt of these decisions and gives valuable input on policy definition. For the first time, Army has made itself accountable to parliament with successive briefings on key national security issues. We have entered a phase where things are slowly but gradually moving in a direction where Army will act as an influential and powerful player in policy making under civilian rule, as happens in mature states. These developments, alone, should give Army the confidence to move beyond creating and recreating its political prodigies. This coupled with the fact that Army's ability to create a prodigy is significantly curtailed in today's time should keep it away from any such misadventures which potentially could damage its image and power significantly. And lastly, Army's last two creations in the political arena, Nawaz Sharif and religious extremists, are enough to nip any such thoughts on part of Army. In a time when almost all major political entities of the country are ready to work on national security issues in consultation with Army, misadventure of creating prodigies will be counter-productive and will damage Army's interest as an institution and Pakistan's interest as a state.
But it is not Army alone which needs to move beyond the old establishment order towards a newer one. Political parties also have an important role to play. In past, Army's meddling in politics and its drive and ability to marginalize political forces led to a mentality in political parties where they would portray themselves as victims of Army's assault. With curtailed ability of Army to meddle in politics and because of its efforts to distance itself (extent of this is arguable) from politics, now political class must also move beyond that victim mindset.
To its credit, PPP leadership has tried to move beyond but its core and cadre still has memories of Army rules in the country. It is the responsibility of leadership to make the workers and voters make this transition and train them to make the transition from party of opposition to party of power. With Pakistan's political landscape, PPP has to assume this role of party of power for long and it will be unfortunate if party's ranks and files are not ready for the new role.
As for the statements of two leaders, NS and Shujat, a journalist friend said that Shujat has no complaints with Army or ISI but his complaints were directed at ex-servicemen residing in West Ridge and other areas of Rawalpindi who are using their influence in bureaucracy, political class, media, and ranks of Army and ISI (and let me add extremists) to bolster Imran Khan and to an extent Nawaz Sharif.
As for Nawaz Sharif, he is one politician who needs to move the most to get in sync with today's Pakistan. He still is stuck in 90s and believes in the fallacies that he and his patrons created then. His core political aim seems vendetta against Pervez Musharraf and Army for the humiliation he faced. He must realize that the very fact that his party came to power in Punjab and the same Musharraf was forced to take oath from his ministers was a vendetta enough. It is time to move on and embrace the system. The times when the hidden hands would arrange for him mandates are gone and now he will have to find his ways within the system with the mandate and vote bank he has. If MQM can become powerful with its 25 seats, Mr. Sharif can do a lot more with his 50-100 seats. More so, unlike MQM, his numbers in present political setup allowed him to consolidate and expand gradually into forming a government in elections ahead. An opportunity he let pass because of his own follies and failure to read the situation.
As for PTI, well they are too new to contribute anything, but with time when the injections of their backers will fail to bring them into any decisive position in nation's power politics, they will realize that their politics will rely on working within the political system, cooperating with political parties. It will be either this or PTI's current urban Punjab popularity will fade like Tehrik-e-Istaklal's popularity of mid-60s.
At a time when Pakistan's civil and military leadership is moving together in carving a way ahead for nation in Eurasia, South Asia, and global economic and political order, and through a turbulent Middle East, it is imperative that they also consolidate this new era of civil-military partnership to establish a new establishment order. Not everything is settled between the civilians and military but the way ahead is through mutual consultation and moving with realization of power realities. Many things will correct in civil-military relationship in the due course but in a way in which civilians' gain will not seem Army's humiliation but a joint effort for a better Pakistan. We have wasted so many energies in civil-military confrontation and the time is ripe to channelize energies for a harmonious and strong Pakistan. The new establishment order is not merely a hope but is the only way forward for Pakistan. 

Democracy Memoirs of Pakistan

1951: A young man from a prominent, knighted Sindhi feudal family marries an Iranian merchant's daughter. Young man fears backlash from his father and to ensure secrecy relies on two of his closest friends then (One for sure was Ilahi Bukhsh Sumro, other I think was cricket commentator and business executive Omar Kureshi). Begins the story of Bhuttos. Young man was Z. A. Bhutto, the woman became Nusrat Bhutto.
Mid-60s: Nusrat, compelled by traditions of the family, forces the daughter, Benazir, to wear veil on trip to family estate of Larkana. ZAB gets furious and categorically declares that his daughters will not wear veil. Coming from a family where his sisters were married to Quran, ZAB's most revolutionary act was to send his daughters to Harvard and Oxford.
Sept 1967: ZAB is arrested by Ayub regime and it seems that the movement gaining momentum will die leaderless. Appears a tonga on Mall Road carrying 3-4 women. One of them was Nusrat Bhutto. People recognize her and flock around her. The movement against Ayub is alive again and leads to his end and ultimately leads to 1970 elections.
July 5, 1977: Martial Law is imposed, Bhutto detained, family sent back to Karachi. Nusrat advises her three children studying abroad to attend their studies. Benazir and Nusrat are the only two left to deal with Zia's tyranny.
December 16, 1977: Bhutto women face the first, of many, assaults of tyrants. Attempt to mobilize people takes them to cricket match in Lahore. Crowd erupts with "Jiye Bhutto" slogans. Police starts baton-charge. A woman's voice roars: unhain kyun mar rahay hu mujhe maro (why are you hitting people, hit me). Police complies, hitting her head leading to blood spilling all over. An image that epitomizes Pakistan's struggle for democracy and fundamental rights.
April 4, 1979: ZAB is hanged in Rawalpindi Jail while Nusrat Bhutto and Benazir are in confinement a few miles away in Sihala. They are not allowed to attend the funeral rites.
February 1981: Nusrat Bhutto forgives political leaders who asked Zia to takeover and forms MRD with them. Whichever way you look at it, it was a game changer in Pakistani feudal-mindset politics. It is where reconciliation got introduced to Pakistani politics. And this, to me, is her biggest gift to Pakistani politics.
July 1985: Bhutto tragedy continues. Shahnawaz, the youngest son of Bhuttos, dies as a result of poison intake (many believe it was act of Zia regime). Only Benazir is allowed to accompany the body back to Pakistan.
December 2, 1988: Benazir Bhutto becomes Prime Minister of Pakistan after PPP wins November polls. Nusrat Bhutto become Senior Minister. She wins from a constituency in Chitral, a conservative bastion where women find it difficult even to vote.
Nov. 18, 1992: Nusrat Bhutto is baton charged again at Bhatti Chowk, Lahore. Wounded, she manages to break the cordon and leaves Lahore for Long March.
September 20, 1996: Bhutto tragedy continues. Murtaza Bhutto is killed by police. Iron lady can't take it any more. Health deteriorates and Alzheimer takes memory away. She is not in to take any more pain.
From Ayub to Zia and later, there is no single person who symbolizes Pakistan's struggle for democracy like Begum Bhutto (not even ZAB and BB). And for all her agony, she had the resolve to live till the fruits of her struggle are finally here. Iron lady's resolve did outlast of those she fought against. The state mourning by elected governments all across the country, was a divine justice for her struggle.
For all the miseries and hardships, the lives like Nusrat Bhutto are not to be mourned but to be cherished and celebrated for their struggle, resolve and commitment. RIP Begum Sahiba! It has been an honor and pleasure having you with us.

Living in a Zero-Sum game - Explaining Pakistan's Foreign Policy by Aparna Pande (A book review)

Good friend Aparna Pande's book hit the bookstalls in May this year. While I had been privileged to go through excerpts of it, it was an absolute pleasure reading this book. Explaining Pakistan's Foreign Policy - Escaping India, published by Routledge is among the most insightful of books on complexities of South Asian foreign policy.
Book discusses how Pakistan's foreign policy has evolved over time because of fear of a large neighbor India with whom Pakistan has shared the blood-feud of partition. It discusses in detail how the desire to counter India has been at the fore of Pakistan's desire for an Islamist identity, its quest for strategic depth, its efforts for Pan-Islamism and having a mid-eastern identity, and its opening up to China. The strongest, and at least for me the most insightful, portion of book is the one that deals with analysis of how events before and soon after partition led to an increased insecurity vis-a-vis India. Dr. Pande has not let her Indian nationality come in the way of objective analysis of how mistakes by Indian leaders cemented those fears and that makes her criticism of Pakistani policies on terrorism and Pakistan's insecurity of India all the more relevant.
The book is among the most honest attempts at dealing with Pakistan's foreign policy issues. Dr. Pande in the concluding section also discusses in detail the achievements of Pakistan and why it does not make much sense to continue with policy of insecurity any more. However, one thing that Dr. Pande has not covered in this book and I am sure she will in her subsequent books is the changing orientation of Pakistan's foreign and security policy.
In last two decades, Pakistan's foreign policy has moved from escaping India to countering India to now seeking a broader role in the region. Though defining a national identity remains an issue for Pakistan, the differentiation vis-a-vis India is becoming less and less an issue as the partition generations on both sides are fading into oblivion and indigenous generations are taking over the affairs. As the time passes, the military with its slow but gradual waning influence will also find it difficult to exploit India factor for her own survival. These factors along with a desire to be the energy conduit between Middle Eastern and Central Asian energy reserves and their markets, and focus on securing water reserves is changing the focus of Pakistani foreign policy. A lot of events of 2000 and beyond must be seen in light of these changing developments.
It is perfectly legitimate for Pakistan to pursue these national interests but the real challenge for policy makers will be not to repeat the mistake of using terrorism as a tool of security policy which ultimately hits the hardest back home. Whether Pakistan succeeds in achieving its security and foreign policy objectives sans terrorism will in great part determine the destiny of Pakistan. And I am sure Dr. Pande very soon will reward us with another book on South Asia encompassing emerging realities.
Till then, go grab a copy of the book. You might or might not agree with all that you read but you will finish it being more informed and more knowledgeable about Pakistan and evolution of its security and foreign policy and in admiration of Dr. Pande's intellect and her deep insight into the issue.

Creating Jobs in a Structural Meltdown – Reviving US Economy

http://econowise.wordpress.com/2011/09/30/creating-jobs-in-a-structural-meltdown-reviving-us-economy/

Karachi - between fairness and practicality.

Zulfikar Mirza's press conference has brought to fore the reality which everyone knew but no one wanted to spell. That MQM sits on top of a mafia and uses violence to further its political objective is a no-brainer. Also is no-brainer the fact that the other parties including ANP, PPP, Sunni Tehrik have resorted to organized armed wings in Karachi in retaliation to MQM's violent tactics. So, for all the obvious reasons, Mirza's press conference has been hailed by vast majority, Sindhis, Balochs, Pathans, Punjabis etc. Mirza is a hero of PPP voters in Sindh as well as PTI and PML-N voters and ANPers. And just when the Pandora has been opened, there are calls for Justice and cutting MQM to size. These demands for justice and fairplay, however, go beyond the realm of practicality for one simple reasons. They ignore the fact that MQM, apart from being a mafia is also a political reality having predominant support among Hindi-belt migrants and there will be strong political consequence of any action aimed at crushing MQM, for it still has more fire power and voters than any of its opponents in Karachi. In short, the desire simply ignores the fabric, support, corporate backing and fire power of MQM.

Let us have a brief roundup of what is happening in Karachi and why? Migrant community of Karachi has always counted on political leadership that has been different from the leadership recognized by the mainstream of Pakistan. However, despite that rejection, all political forces had been allowed to operate freely in Karachi and at different points had drawn partial political support from the metropolis. In 1980s, in retaliation to JI's armed domination of campuses emerged a force (MQM) which not only dominated the political scene of Karachi but also made it a no-go area for all other political entities through mafia network. MQM's main political strength stemmed from migrant community that formed the majority of Karachi's population back then. Through mass support and violent tactics, any opposition to MQM in Karachi was suffocated more and more every passing day. In late 80s and early 90s MQM had held the city and could cripple the national economy anytime it deemed fit by choking Karachi. Elements of State realizing the situation tried to hit back at MQM in 90s thrice. Though political compulsions of establishment hampered and reversed the progress, as a result of operations, specially the second one under Gen. Babar, the violent capability of MQM was reasonably curtailed. Then came General Musharraf and with him two things happened. First, MQM was allowed a free run. Its mafia men detained were freed. Its operatives who had fled the country in 90s were allowed to return to Karachi. And according to intelligence sources, through Shipping ministry, it was given a free ride to import any amount and type of weaponry into Karachi. Just when this was happening, Karachi was undergoing a major demographic shift. Migrants who used to be a majority in the city were turning into a minority because of influx of people from KP and Balochistan. According to 2008 statistics, Migrants now constitute 49% of Karachi population.
On one hand, the people from non-migrant communities, started seeing economic sense in creating mafias. On the other, the political parties were troubled by MQM's hijacking of polling stations to deny them their fair share of the mandate. This led to political patronage of mafia by other political parties. PPP, which had a stronghold in Baloch areas, started patronizing Baloch mafia. ANP, in the mean time, had taken over the Pashtun mafia. And so the gang-wars in Karachi turned into high profile political turf wars. 

There are some suggestions that the rise of these counter-MQM mafias was in part facilitated by Establishment, for Establishment was vary of MQM's muscle, post discovery of RPGs and Anti-tank weapons from MQM operatives, and wanted to counter MQM's strength. So, now we are at a point where these mafias exist in Karachi and they are in a battle to wield control over markets and turf. This battle is what has caused trouble in Karachi in past three years. For others, battle will end only if MQM gives them control as per their share (which some of them think is the whole pie). For MQM, concession might lead to a never-ending spiral of losing control over the city it has controlled for three decades.

MQM, the mightiest of them all, can take them all but the process will be very costly for MQM. On the other hand, there could be an all out security operation in Karachi to cleanse the city of its mafias. But, just when this operation is capable of wiping out mafias, including the one run by MQM, the economic and political cost of it will be unbearable.
With this balance sheet, in sight, rather than going for an all out operation that would be long and will cripple national economy, the State has decided to create a power equilibrium where all sides are given a share based on their relative size and strength and ensuring that if anyone wants to break the equilibrium, everyone will be destroyed. If it is enforced by the backing of State, State being the mightiest of actors, could take on anyone who goes beyond his specified share and thus all will be forced to stay in line. For MQM, it will be a better alternative to an all out security operation, in which the economy will suffer but MQM will ultimately be damaged significantly. This practical solution presents the best solution for all sides. State will end up creating a balance of power where sides are pitched in such a way that none of them could move to disturb the equilibrium. MQM will avoid an all out operation. And ANP, PPP and others will get their relative share of the political bargain. This equilibrium is the plan being rolled out in Karachi for now.
But implementing this bargain will be a tough nut to crack. It will be hard for MQM to let go part of what it used to own. Even if leadership agrees, the local splinters of mafia can rebel against the leadership and thus take things to an all out operation. It is in this context that Altaf Hussain has given the message to his cadres that going back to India is not an option and MQM supporters and migrants community has to live here. My sense is that just when the final bargain will be relative to each side's size, MQM will be given slightly more than its due share to compensate for what it will concede.
Implementation is an issue on other side as well. Pathan and Baloch (backed by ANP and PPP) mafias feel they have cornered MQM in last few years. They smell the blood and think that they can go for the kill. Same is the feeling among many of Sindhi cadre of PPP. Just when the top leadership of ANP and PPP seems to be on-board for a new equilibrium, because of these sentiments, they too fear rebellion in their ranks.
What the local cadre of ANP and PPP fails to realize is the fact that MQM is not only a mafia and political party but a mafia raised by Corporate Karachi to preserve its interest. Hit worst by 70s nationalization, MQM was aided and funded by Karachi's business tycoons, created at the first opportunity they got post-nationalization, to make sure their interests are protected in the State. Such mafia exists in every major business center sans a strong corporate law infrastructure. MQM has delivered its end of the bargain with business community. Be it protecting the businesses, facilitating transactions, or protecting interests of business community on issues like VAT, it has always been there. It was this business community which introduced MQM to military junta of Zia. So, contrary to Mr. Mirza's plea to business community to back him sans Bhatta, Karachi's business community will not abandon MQM. Even the State knows that pushed pass a brink, MQM will be left with no other option but to retaliate. Thus leading to the option of an all out operation. So despite their wishes, MQM can be cut down but can certainly not be forced out.
The fear of rebellion among splinters is the biggest obstacle in attaining the new equilibrium. It also seems that Altaf Hussain's consent for the arrangement is tentative to say the least. On his part, as architect of the formula and political head of establishment, President Zardari is likely to go all out to ensure the success of this equilibrium formula. He will have full backing of Asfand Yar Wali, though concessions will be hard to be drawn from ANP. Whether the new equilibrium is attained or impractical wishes for a fair solution lead us to circumstances which the State wants to avoid remains to be seen.
In the mean time, let us keep speculating whether Mr. Mirza represents the rebellion among local cadres who think that MQM can be wiped out or is there to force Altaf Hussain to the bargain.