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IndoPak War - Probabilities and Permutation

I never wanted to write this post. I wish things had never came to the point which merits pondering of such thoughts. But alas they have and so this should be penned. Let us analyze where things are heading. First and foremost, it seems someone is trying to drag India into a war. I say India, whosoever is behind Mumbai attacks and post-Mumbai attacks developments, is aiming to provoke India to be aggressive and consider military option. The provocation caused by Mumbai carnage, followed by media madness (equally followed by the same madness in Pakistan) and hysteria created by defense analysts and extremist elements in India, seems more and more like playing in the hands of provokers. If aim of Mumbai attacks was to provoke India, terrorists (or whosoever it was) is succeeding. And India must learn from lessons of provoked invasions of last 6 years (Lebanon and Iraq) where someone provoked the war which ended up strengthening the Islamic extremists in both places. Unlike the popul

What can be done?

Someone some where wants the world to head to a major war being triggered in South Asia? Who is it? I am not too sure. One thing I can say for sure is that Indian Establishment is not comfortable with a democratic Pakistan. They have had great time under dictatorships of Zia and Musharraf. And then they have a horrible memory of isolation and cornering (though most of it had to do with India's problems within) under a stable democratic Pakistan of 1970s. Secondly, there are elements in defense establishment of both India and Pakistan who want tensions to escalate for the interest of Military Industrial Complex (Please refer to US President Eisenhower's farewell speech on youtube). There most potent tool is their infiltration in the corresponding medias. Coverage of both Pakistan and Indian media post Mumbai attacks has been the main instigator of hatred and escalation of tension. Societies in generals, at least the main stream, have been cautious vis-a-vis being jingoist but

India and Pakistan - the conflicts within

“There’s a little bit of India in every Pakistani and a little bit of Pakistan in every Indian." A quote by Benazir Bhutto referred by President Zardari during his address to Hindustan Times conference, only a couple of days before the Mumbai terrorist attacks. My challenge here will be not to be influenced by the Pakistani or the Indian in me while I analyze the recent developments and our options going forward. I know what I am going to say here will not go well with a lot of my friends (on both sides). But I believe in the wake of present circumstances, it is time for some tough and honest talk. First and foremost, if at all these attacks have any proven Pakistani connection; it is in the best interest of Pakistani to persecute the elements responsible for it. More so, because the past tells us that these elements have proven more dangerous for Pakistan than for anyone else. Also, if these attacks have any Pakistani connection, it is in best interest of all the parties to h

A story of a struggle

On September 9, 2008, with oath taking of Mr. Asif Ali Zardari as President of Pakistan, an era came to an end in the cycles of control over Pakistan. I have lived through this era and have been fortunate to observe the last few years of this era with close proximity and this post is my account of what happened to the best of my knowledge. Before I move forward with the narration, let me state a disclaimer, this account is based on what I saw observed, heard, read and analyzed. What I analyzed can certainly be wrong though it is supported by a logic which makes sense to me based on what I have known and seen. What I have heard might not be the final word as well. For though, the sources were mostly the people who were at the heart of the whole process, and I have no reason to doubt what they told me but again I, in some cases, might not be fully aware of the context of what I heard or came to know. Same holds true for what I observed or read. I state this disclaimer for three reasons

Help Bajaur Refugees

Lately, after it being in my bookshelf for many months, I finally was able to read Khalid Hosseini's "The Kite Runner". A great book I must say. But the reason I mentioned this book is not to discuss the book. I share this here to highlight the symbolism of why I read this book now and not earlier - a symbolism over which I had no control. I have many friends who say that there is a great degree of symbolism in everything that we do and that happens around us. I never took it seriously. But in reading of the book, I realized there may be some symbolism in timing of this reading. To me the biggest revelation of the novel was to imagine and understand the reality of plight of refugees. With all the volatility surrounding my country and my society, I shuddered at the thought of a situation where my people - family, friends, relatives, neighbors, people of my city, my countrymen - might have to face this. I realized that in the turmoil surrounding us, this is a probability.

Nawaz Sharif and His Options

Cat is out of the bag. Nawaz Sharif has left the coalition. For months, when I was saying that by taking a hard line on Musharraf, Nawaz is covertly helping Musharraf to stay in power and that this is his political necessity , no one was ready to believe this. The way events have unfolded post Musharraf, strengthens my argument. First, let me quickly recap my argument. Mian sahab is a leader of 8-10 districts of Punjab, he has already swept those areas even winning against strong constituency candidates. Even if he keeps repeating this performance, he cannot win majority to form government. Repeating this performance seems unlikely because you cannot beat strong candidates every time. Even if he does, these districts alone do not give you enough numbers to form a government in Islamabad. His party has no roots in Pakhtunkhwah , Balochistan or Sindh and minimal presence in Saraiki belt and chances of him developing roots in those territories is bleak. So what is his best apparen

ISI: A misstep turning into a master stroke

I do not really know what instigated the hasty move to put IB and ISI under Interior Ministry's control. Putting IB under Interior Ministry makes sense. But it makes no apparent sense to put ISI under Interior Ministry. ISI, as we know, is a defense intelligence agency and has no direct business with Interior Ministry. So rather than going by the usual surface analysis going on in the media and intellegencia circles, let us try to analyze what happened and why? (again I never claim know-all). Before we go any further let us understand ISI and parameters of current intercourse taking place on this so-called "ISI fiasco" briefly. ISI is Pakistan's premium intelligence service. It has been alleged with meddling in domestic political affairs and has been responsible for creating and aiding King's parties from PML-Junejo to IJI to PML-N to PML-Q. It has drawn a lot of criticism domestically for its involvement in political affairs. Its political mandate, made o

March of an idea and what should Asif Zardari do?

All the uncertainty and turmoil surrounding Pakistan occupied my mind for good part of last two months. Our federation is in a very fragile state, thanks to our establishment’s policies of 60 year. Worst still, this fragility came at a time when the world economies are subject to high inflation and slow down. To make matters worse, eight years of maestro economic policies of Mush-Aziz have destroyed the base of Pakistani economy. Pakistani economy having its base in agriculture and manufacturing has been turned into a leased consumer economy. All this and a lot more is really worrisome, and so worried I was. If this was not all, the government led by PPP is under attack from both sides. On one hand, the president and his cronies are trying to undermine it and on the other the friends indeed like N's are wasting no opportunity to fail it. It seems as if PPP has singlehandedly decided to take blame for all that is controversial, to save the system. Any unpopular decision, even with t

Threat of Taliban Takeover

I wanted to talk about the demise of long march. Ghalib said about it decades back Thi khabar garm ke Ghalib ke uraeen ge purzae - dekhne hum bhi gae pae yeh tamasha na huwa But then I thought I should write about three threats facing PPP co-chairperson Asif Ali Zardari, namely a character assassination campaign by right-wing establishment and "his-brother"-linked journalists (planned and soon to be launched), the threat coming from Larkana in the form of PPP-haqiqi (or should i say PPP-Sarkar Raj), and above all the threat to his life with the forces of oppression and establishment and extremism in Pakistan having him on target (I think only thing stopping them, apart from security arrangements is, international reaction to such event, and reaction on street in Pakistan and particularly Sindh). But, among those news and concerns, has stemmed something that, to me, is more pressing than anything else. For last two weeks, there are stories all around of ever increasing Taliban

Slap on the face of Istaqlali Lawyer and Pakistani Media

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Istaqlali lawyer and Pakistani media always makes us believe that Benazir Bhutto wanted restoration of judges. They base her November 10 speech for this. Here are Benazir Bhutto's views on judges before and after November 10. The crux of her speech of November 10 was that it is criminal to take Pakistani flag off CJ's residence and we will make it hoist again and restore sanctity of institutions. First is her press conference in Dubai on October 17, 2007, a day before she came to Pakistan. http://youtube.com/watch?v=EPVUOK5DAPo Second 14 days before her assassination, long after November 10, 2007, on December 13, 2007, she again expressed her views on judges. This is the text reported by all major newspapers of her press conference. You liar media and Istaqlali lawyer, have courage to propagate your point of view without misquoting a dead person. You are shameful creatures. May your lies and ulterior motives be exposed.

Happy Musharraf - Nawaz Alliance

The feedback I received on my last post surprised me. However, the most surprising conversation happened with a leading Islamabad-based journalist famous for news-breaking. While discussing way forward for Nawaz Sharif, I advised the journalist to convey to Nawaz Sharif that survival for both him and Musharraf lies in joining hands. Little did I know that my advice will be acted upon much before my wildest imaginations. My advice drew an "are you mad?" reaction from the journalist. Just when it is really hard to comprehend a Musharraf - Nawaz Alliance, there is no way both can stay in this power-game without each other. Let us discuss Musharraf first. Asif Zardari was reluctant to touch Musharraf until AZ has consolidated his position and has also taken Army, international community and other stakeholders into confidence. After his open assault on Musharraf, it became clear that Musharraf's days are numbered. A falling Musharraf needed a straw and the straw came in Na

Emergence of a New Establishment

I connect the dots and emerges the picture. Many of my friends say to me that I usually blindly tow the PPP line, and my honest response to them is, I think of those things long before they become PPP line. And so is the recent unfolding of confrontation between PPP and N. Pervaiz Musharraf and forth military rule has been a cancer for this country that has destroyed every single foundation of this nation state. In last few months, the military has decided to have a strategic retreat from the fore of power struggle to redeem and reconstruct its image and Pervez Musharraf is nothing but a lame duck who is desperately trying to make last ditch efforts to stay clinched to power. This situation has made obvious the fundamental battle for Pakistan. If someone needs a proof of changing paradigm, there is enough to be seen. Just one incidence of release of Akhtar Mengal tells a whole lot about the state of influence of Musharraf, military and establishment. As a result of 40 years of st