Happy Musharraf - Nawaz Alliance
The feedback I received on my last post surprised me. However, the most surprising conversation happened with a leading Islamabad-based journalist famous for news-breaking. While discussing way forward for Nawaz Sharif, I advised the journalist to convey to Nawaz Sharif that survival for both him and Musharraf lies in joining hands. Little did I know that my advice will be acted upon much before my wildest imaginations.
My advice drew an "are you mad?" reaction from the journalist. Just when it is really hard to comprehend a Musharraf - Nawaz Alliance, there is no way both can stay in this power-game without each other.
Let us discuss Musharraf first. Asif Zardari was reluctant to touch Musharraf until AZ has consolidated his position and has also taken Army, international community and other stakeholders into confidence. After his open assault on Musharraf, it became clear that Musharraf's days are numbered. A falling Musharraf needed a straw and the straw came in Nawaz Sharif. Nawaz Sharif's fiery speech on Aiwan-e-Iqbal rally along with chants of "Musharraf ku phansi du (Hang Musharraf)" provided Musharraf with the much needed straw. It provided the kind of reason he was looking for to go back to powers that be and seek their support again. US fears Nawaz for his links with extremists including OBL. The power circles controlling Army want a face-saving exit for the ex-army chief. The drama at Aiwan-e-Iqbal was strong enough to make US and Army have second thoughts on their go-ahead to Zardari. And so Musharraf probably has got a temporary lifeline, thanks to his new-found friend Nawaz Sharif. Musharraf survived in power for eight years by bluffing on MMA and Mullah’s threat, with full cooperation of and to Mullahs. Now, he is doing the same in collaboration with Nawaz.
A million dollar question is what has Nawaz to gain of it? First and foremost, emergence of a new power-center around PPP and regional parties diminishes all hopes for Nawaz’s return to power in the near future. It is a ground reality that Nawaz's party is at the best a regional party. He effectively has no presence in three smaller provinces and neither has any appeal to build his presence there. In
Sharif brothers wanted to be in the assemblies to have better control over issues. In my humble opinion, Musharraf and cronies facilitated them in tape drama and other things. From Malik Qayyum to Dogar, and from Secretary Election Commission to judges of Lahore High Court, we know whose cronies are in play. Pervaiz Elahi has once again been bitten in this cruel power struggle. As you sow, so shall you reap.
Also, his best bet of gaining the blessing of power-centers lies in restoring his judges on his terms and using the Frankenstein of judiciary to manipulate the system to be able to form a government. Reality is, if Musharraf goes, people will forget about judges. The reception judges’ issue had received since March 9, 2007 is not for love of judges but for hate of Musharraf. So removal of Musharraf would have destroyed all hopes of return of judiciary on Nawaz's terms. That is precisely the reason he is opposing and hindering the constitutional amendments aimed at consolidates power in the hands of parliament and thus dashing his hopes of gaining majority through the help of "supra-parliamentary powers". Again, it is a help to Musharraf for Musharraf’s wings will be clipped through the constitutional amendments.
So for now, Musharraf and Nawaz have put their differences on hold to combat their ever eroding power basis. If they survive, they will settle their scores with each other some other day. With different ends in sight, the realities of present have made the bitter enemies converge on common means. It is for people of
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