Back to The Future
The opposition parties seem all set to start a nationwide movement against General Musharaf on the issue of uniform. His opponents believe that with the changing geopolitical environment, General’s time is up. But whether now or later, General has to go one day and, if history is anything to go by, with him will go his system too. We can hope that once he is gone the country will revert to the track of relatively legitimate elections and a democratic course as happened in the years following Gen. Zia or even his predecessors. But if there is anything to be learnt from the post-Zia democratic experience, this time around, the political class of the country must be ready to take up the challenges left by the legacy of 5 years of provisional rule. So just when they are gearing up to start a movement against the General, this time it will be wise for them to plan for the times to come.
Partly contributed by the provisional government and partly by the external and internal factors, Pakistan is facing the gravest of the challenges ranging from political to social and foreign policy to economic. Civic society in general and political class in particular must work to realize these challenges and to come up with answers to them. Anyone who comes to power post-Musharaf must have comprehensive plans to counter these challenges. If nothing substantial is done, the entire democratic exercise will become futile and the resulting disillusionment will lead to another military era or a fundamentalist takeover. With the challenges ever mounting and state institution ever failing, Post-Musharaf era might be our last chance to create a democratic Pakistan.
No republic can face a challenge more grave than the challenge to her salvation and security. Never in our history of 55+ years have we been more endangered than we are right now. According to some estimates, there is a military of around a million trained fundamentalists, ready to let lose anytime. To many, this militia has become more strong and consolidated under the watch of this regime. These Jihadis, if not controlled or disarmed, are fully capable of launching a lethal and disastrous civil war. A glimpse of it is already visible in Wana and other areas around Waziristan where the writ of the government is all but lost and Pakistan Army is engaged in a long and bloody combat with foreigners as well as locals. If this war prolongs it can be an ideal pretext of a foreign power to intervene. Anyone who takes over from Musharaf will have to take on these Jihadi’s. No militia should have ever been allowed to be established in Pakistan. The toughest challenge for the next government will be to root out this network. It will require a long and smart battle fought on military as well as political turf. It will be a war on a small segment of our own people and must be fought with utmost care. We should try to win as many hearts and minds we could in these Jihadi outfits while resorting to military offensive against the enemies of state. Government will not only have to combat this militia but it will also have to do it in a way that does not spark anger and agitation within the country.
Another place where the writ of government is losing fast is Balochistan. Balochistan seems to be on the verge of a large secessionist movement caused by years of negligence by the federal governments, unconstitutional rule and lack of communication between various federating units. Calming the situation in Balochistan will be just another mammoth task the next government will have to accomplish. The solution requires a long term strategy rather than the usual approach of cosmetic changes and instantaneous small concessions. Because of her vast natural resources, geographical location and the sheer area, Balochistan is the most vital province for the rapid development of the country. But any development without taking Balochi’s into confidence will be a recipe to disaster. The next government will have to make sure that Balochistan develops rapidly and the fruits of development are being passed to average Balochis. In an already flared up Balochistan, there is no room any more scams like Gwadar land mafia scam. In case of Balochistan, having a representative, democratic government will be a big advantage but this, if not followed up with concrete actions, can slip fast.
Barring security challenges, there are a lot of constitutional issues that the next government will have to deal with. First and foremost, we will have to redefine the nature of relationship between the center and provinces. This will require altering the current scope of authority of both federal and provincial governments. Now the time has come for center to surrender some of her authority to provinces and the parliament will have to devise a mechanism for a gradual transfer of power from center to provinces.
Another issue will be the big question of Army’s role in governance. Only the collective will of the entire political class, from left to right and local to national, can deal with it. It requires an agreement between all political parties that they will never allow a military takeover of the government in any circumstances and will resist it every inch of its way. Sounds utopian – well it is. But that is the only way out unless the ranks and files of Pakistan Army decide that constitution has to be abided by at every cost.
Strong economy and Micro economic stability is termed as the biggest achievement of this regime. Dig a bit deeper and it all sounds sham, as does anything else under this administration. According to the financial wizards of Islamabad, in the last five years, the country has seen an economic growth of sorts that it has never seen before. Foreign exchange reserves have skyrocketed to US$ 12 billion. The stock market has expanded by more than 200% and the GDP growth has been real good. Look at a common man in a village or city and it is an altogether different picture. Rise in foreign exchange reserves was a mere consequence of post-9/11 remittances and credit goes more to US Justice Departments crack down on all Muslims than to the financial gurus of Islamabad. For last 5 years, the industrial growth has been stagnant and the growth of agricultural sector has plunged to as low as less than 3% per annum. The only sector that flourished under this regime has been the property sector. The sector growing mainly on speculation and hype is reaching saturation and we might be heading to a burst of property bubble. This burst, God forbids, can cause billions to thousands of Pakistanis. This might turn out to be the biggest financial scam of this country and planning needs be done to deal with the political and economic aftermath of this potential disaster. Another troubling phenomena of late has been the flight of capital abroad specially Dubai. The next government will have to come up with a comprehensive economic plan to create the investment opportunities, reduce unemployment, and ensure a fair distribution of wealth. It will have to bridge the gap between haves and have-nots that has rocketed to alarming proportions. Also, now the time has come to put in place long term healthcare, social security and education policies.
After years of one man rule, reshaping and redefining the foreign policy in line with the national interest and aspirations rather than those of the man on top, is another task to be dealt with. We need a coherent foreign policy best suited to our economic and geopolitical interests. For 5 decades rigidity has been the hallmark of our foreign policy. We supported Islamic fundamentalists, militancy and Jihadis with utmost fervor and zeal and then post-9/11 we are fighting the war against militancy with same zeal and fervor. For decades, even the normal relationships with Indians were a forbidden fruit and now we are ready to concede anything to have friendly relations with India. If we have to flourish as a nation, this extremism will have to go. We need a pragmatic, realistic and flexible foreign policy vis-à-vis region and world. This is the time for us to decide where we stand on the issues of freedom struggles, terrorism, democracy and human rights on the global scale. We have to set realistic economic and political preferences vis-à-vis outside world and then reshape our foreign policy accordingly. This asks for a debate in all sections of our civic society.
We as a nation will have to rise to the challenges that are facing us, as the great nations have begun their journey to glory confronting the similar challenges. The words that General used in his first speech after takeover seem more true than ever -” we have touched the rock-bottom, we have no other option but to rise and rise shall we”. Will we or we would not – history will be a judge.
Partly contributed by the provisional government and partly by the external and internal factors, Pakistan is facing the gravest of the challenges ranging from political to social and foreign policy to economic. Civic society in general and political class in particular must work to realize these challenges and to come up with answers to them. Anyone who comes to power post-Musharaf must have comprehensive plans to counter these challenges. If nothing substantial is done, the entire democratic exercise will become futile and the resulting disillusionment will lead to another military era or a fundamentalist takeover. With the challenges ever mounting and state institution ever failing, Post-Musharaf era might be our last chance to create a democratic Pakistan.
No republic can face a challenge more grave than the challenge to her salvation and security. Never in our history of 55+ years have we been more endangered than we are right now. According to some estimates, there is a military of around a million trained fundamentalists, ready to let lose anytime. To many, this militia has become more strong and consolidated under the watch of this regime. These Jihadis, if not controlled or disarmed, are fully capable of launching a lethal and disastrous civil war. A glimpse of it is already visible in Wana and other areas around Waziristan where the writ of the government is all but lost and Pakistan Army is engaged in a long and bloody combat with foreigners as well as locals. If this war prolongs it can be an ideal pretext of a foreign power to intervene. Anyone who takes over from Musharaf will have to take on these Jihadi’s. No militia should have ever been allowed to be established in Pakistan. The toughest challenge for the next government will be to root out this network. It will require a long and smart battle fought on military as well as political turf. It will be a war on a small segment of our own people and must be fought with utmost care. We should try to win as many hearts and minds we could in these Jihadi outfits while resorting to military offensive against the enemies of state. Government will not only have to combat this militia but it will also have to do it in a way that does not spark anger and agitation within the country.
Another place where the writ of government is losing fast is Balochistan. Balochistan seems to be on the verge of a large secessionist movement caused by years of negligence by the federal governments, unconstitutional rule and lack of communication between various federating units. Calming the situation in Balochistan will be just another mammoth task the next government will have to accomplish. The solution requires a long term strategy rather than the usual approach of cosmetic changes and instantaneous small concessions. Because of her vast natural resources, geographical location and the sheer area, Balochistan is the most vital province for the rapid development of the country. But any development without taking Balochi’s into confidence will be a recipe to disaster. The next government will have to make sure that Balochistan develops rapidly and the fruits of development are being passed to average Balochis. In an already flared up Balochistan, there is no room any more scams like Gwadar land mafia scam. In case of Balochistan, having a representative, democratic government will be a big advantage but this, if not followed up with concrete actions, can slip fast.
Barring security challenges, there are a lot of constitutional issues that the next government will have to deal with. First and foremost, we will have to redefine the nature of relationship between the center and provinces. This will require altering the current scope of authority of both federal and provincial governments. Now the time has come for center to surrender some of her authority to provinces and the parliament will have to devise a mechanism for a gradual transfer of power from center to provinces.
Another issue will be the big question of Army’s role in governance. Only the collective will of the entire political class, from left to right and local to national, can deal with it. It requires an agreement between all political parties that they will never allow a military takeover of the government in any circumstances and will resist it every inch of its way. Sounds utopian – well it is. But that is the only way out unless the ranks and files of Pakistan Army decide that constitution has to be abided by at every cost.
Strong economy and Micro economic stability is termed as the biggest achievement of this regime. Dig a bit deeper and it all sounds sham, as does anything else under this administration. According to the financial wizards of Islamabad, in the last five years, the country has seen an economic growth of sorts that it has never seen before. Foreign exchange reserves have skyrocketed to US$ 12 billion. The stock market has expanded by more than 200% and the GDP growth has been real good. Look at a common man in a village or city and it is an altogether different picture. Rise in foreign exchange reserves was a mere consequence of post-9/11 remittances and credit goes more to US Justice Departments crack down on all Muslims than to the financial gurus of Islamabad. For last 5 years, the industrial growth has been stagnant and the growth of agricultural sector has plunged to as low as less than 3% per annum. The only sector that flourished under this regime has been the property sector. The sector growing mainly on speculation and hype is reaching saturation and we might be heading to a burst of property bubble. This burst, God forbids, can cause billions to thousands of Pakistanis. This might turn out to be the biggest financial scam of this country and planning needs be done to deal with the political and economic aftermath of this potential disaster. Another troubling phenomena of late has been the flight of capital abroad specially Dubai. The next government will have to come up with a comprehensive economic plan to create the investment opportunities, reduce unemployment, and ensure a fair distribution of wealth. It will have to bridge the gap between haves and have-nots that has rocketed to alarming proportions. Also, now the time has come to put in place long term healthcare, social security and education policies.
After years of one man rule, reshaping and redefining the foreign policy in line with the national interest and aspirations rather than those of the man on top, is another task to be dealt with. We need a coherent foreign policy best suited to our economic and geopolitical interests. For 5 decades rigidity has been the hallmark of our foreign policy. We supported Islamic fundamentalists, militancy and Jihadis with utmost fervor and zeal and then post-9/11 we are fighting the war against militancy with same zeal and fervor. For decades, even the normal relationships with Indians were a forbidden fruit and now we are ready to concede anything to have friendly relations with India. If we have to flourish as a nation, this extremism will have to go. We need a pragmatic, realistic and flexible foreign policy vis-à-vis region and world. This is the time for us to decide where we stand on the issues of freedom struggles, terrorism, democracy and human rights on the global scale. We have to set realistic economic and political preferences vis-à-vis outside world and then reshape our foreign policy accordingly. This asks for a debate in all sections of our civic society.
We as a nation will have to rise to the challenges that are facing us, as the great nations have begun their journey to glory confronting the similar challenges. The words that General used in his first speech after takeover seem more true than ever -” we have touched the rock-bottom, we have no other option but to rise and rise shall we”. Will we or we would not – history will be a judge.
Comments