US-Pakistan Relationship - Changing Times

President Bush has completed his South-Asian visit. And all through out, there has been a growing feeling in Pakistan that we have been wronged. On all issues from terrorism to nuclear energy deal, from Kashmir to trade deal, nothing seems to benefit us. And above all, it seems that the pressure on Gen. Musharaf is increasing on issues ranging from terrorism to democracy.

Many draw parallels to the fair-weather friendship of US in the past where US had used Pakistan in her hour of need and then abandoned it. It could be argued in terms of real-politik who was to be blamed for that inconsistent pattern of friendship. But observing Bush's language and body language, it looks anything but abandonment. Let us look at the issues that were the corner stone of this visit.

Make no mess about it; the visit was for India only. Pakistan and Afghanistan were mere stopovers for some sort of compensation. The headline of the visit is a civilian nuclear deal signed between US and India. The deal allows India to gain nuclear technology and fuel from US and will lead to greater sharing in research in the field of nuclear energy between US and India. It will also serve as an enabler for India to acquire the nuclear technology and nuclear fuel from other countries. India has succeeded in forcing US to accept all her demands vis-à-vis separation of civilian and military nuclear programs.

But probably the biggest aspect of this deal is an indirect recognition of India as the sixth legitimate nuclear power in the World. Now there is a lot of talk about the deals prospects in US Congress. Then there are talks of opposition of left parties in India. To be honest, it is simply nonsense. The men on hill fully understand the implications of blocking any such deal. That will mean alienating India, strengthening Shanghai group, and a serious blow to US influence in Asia. Also, it will be a big blow to Bush's presidency and he could not have gone with the treaty without a reasonable degree of assurance that it will get through. So Tariq Azim's and Mushahid's, on this, please shut up and stop befooling yourselves and the nation. As for India, no matter how hard the resistance is from leftist parties, there will be no hurdle in its way. Firstly, because in the last two decades, India has transformed into a country that feels good about US - thanks to the Indian community in US, the off-shore outsourcing to India, and conscious efforts on the part of successive US administrations. Secondly, this deal has been done on India's terms and Indians realize that if they lose it, they probably will lose it forever.

In India, the bilateral focus (Indo-US) has been on economics. Energy, trade, agriculture, and outsourcing were the core issues. But there was the offer of F-16 and F-18 planes with probable transfer of technology and opportunities of joint-production as well.

And in the end, came a compassionate speech praising India on democracy, human rights, religious tolerance, calling it a strategic ally and a co-leader in the march of democracy and freedom. This all is partly because of balancing China but much of it is India’s recognition as a force to reckon with in the times to come. Why can’t we admit that India is predicted to be the third biggest economy in the World by late 2030s?

Ignorant and utopian as the capital is, these developments caused the alarm-bells ring in Pakistan and we as an emotional nation are since talking about movement from one extreme (being a mere puppet of US) to another (being ditched by a cowboy boyfriend). But will we be candid for once? Our euphoric policy making has thrown us into the current state and we seem determined to deal with the current state with the same euphoric attitude.

Out of sync with the reality, these developments have shaken the establishment. The Maliha Lodhis and Col Ikrams (the czars of Pakistan’s foreign and defense policies) are trying to make us believe that we should explore other options and start looking towards China, Russia and heaven knows. These czars of Pakistan’s foreign policy beat the drum of Pak-Us Alliance and its bounties with equal fervor for last four years. They have started calling for justice in international affairs as if this is thought pounced on them overnight. Take my word for it, nothing has hurt them more than Bush’s talk on democracy.

The radicals, on the other hand, are calling it a conspiracy against Islam and Muslims and we could here enough of nonsense of Hamid Gul and Qazi on this. Their aim is to exploit the public opinion through this emotional rhetoric.

Let us be honest and frank. Whether other countries proliferate or not? Whether Dr. A.Q. Khan was a scapegoat or the private CEO of the nonproliferation nexus? Whether army knew about the nuclear deals or not? Whether it was official or unofficial? The fact is that we are a nation who were indulged in proliferation of nuclear technology and have been caught red-handed. Not only that, the record suggests that we were involved with countries like Iran, North Korea and Libya, whom the West considers rogue states. Add to that Pakistan’s vulnerability to terrorist network, Jihadi camps, Jihad apparatus and militant wings so proudly hailed by our establishment in the past, and it all turns into a nightmare for West.

We can keep talking about double standards of the US but this will take us nowhere. The only way forward is to accept reality and take measures to use it to our advantage as a nation. In no way am I suggesting that we should accept India’s dominance. But we should take measures that enable us to challenge Indian dominance on the World stage and not the ones that will make us look like a bunch of jokers (remember Kargil and its masterminds). In the times to come, we will have to prove to the world through our track record that we are a responsible nation worthy of having a nuclear program and acquiring the status of a responsible force on the International stage. We will have to enhance our economic strength and above all we will have to establish our credentials as a democratic, tolerant and progressive nation-state.

It amuses me when people like Irfan Siddiqui talk about ditching US for Jihadis and in the same breath talk about our historic friendship with China. Let us stop fooling ourselves. Whether we decide to side US or China or Russia or all of them (the way India does), we will have to denounce and fight terrorism. For terrorism is not a US problem but the problem all world powers share and a problem none of them is willing to tolerate. So enough of Osamas and Mullah Omars; if we have to acquire our destiny.

Govt. and radicals alike, the mullah military alliance, are far from reality on this. The issue is simple. We have failed to develop into a modern, democratic state with sound economy and responsible policy making and now we should pull our socks and try being one.

And now to the positives of this trip - to me for the first time in many years, the US, with this visit of Bush, has tried to make a conscious effort to develop a contact with people of Pakistan (when has an American president played cricket?). Just hear Bush speak in the joint press briefing and at banquet. This was probably the first time that he mentioned Pakistan and people of Pakistan rather than my buddy and my friend Musharaf. And this probably is the first time that he let out his concerns on democracy in open. This attempt to connect to the people of Pakistan will be a cautious attempt and will depend on the response US gets in return. I believe this time US wants a long-term relationship with the people of Pakistan (of course mostly on her terms but with mutual give and take). My fear is that in the rhetoric of Anti-Islam and Anti-Pakistan and Jewish-Indian conspiracy, we will fail to use this opportunity to our advantage.

I am not saying that we should become a satellite state of US but confronting US is not a solution either. If US is making an attempt to connect to us, the people of Pakistan, we should explore this option to the fullest. Our foreign policy has been one-dimensional in the past. It should not be one-dimensional in the future. It should be based on strong ties with China, Russia, Islamic World, EU, in short all major forces. But if in the past four years, having a foreign policy focused solely around US was a big mistake, for the coming years having a foreign policy san US will be an even bigger one.