Chief Justice Crisis - The Issues overlooked

I wanted to pen down my thoughts on the judicial crisis and the other crisis that have hit the country for quite some time now but some how it got delayed and then the things issues kept adding to it. So today, I will be discussing a few issues on the periphery of CJP crisis.

There are two issues that the commentators and people in general have ignored or their merits been under-assessed in the due course. No one in particular is considering what one individual in the position of influence can do in case he decides to resist the dictatorial tendencies or unconstitutional behavior and then based on this what will be the impact when a few people in the position of power decide to uphold the cause of constitution and rule of law. This, keeping in view the sorry state of rule of law in our national history, is a direct commentary on our national conscience.

Second point that is missed or I should say miss-assessed is its impact on Musharaf. Musharaf's rule hinges on two pillars. One is the external support that he gets from US led west and second the establishment. Thanks to the policies of Zia Ul Haq and Musharaf, country, for last few years, is sitting on the brink of civil wars in FATA, North West of NWFP, Central Balochistan and Karachi (yes a three way civil war between MQM, Mullahs and state). More over, with the rising power of extremists, Hazara belt of NWFP, Islamabad, and northern and central Punjab could turn into a Baghdad with sniper brigades operating all around. In such scenario, a jittery transition of power can instigate these conflicts that have the potential of marking the end of Federation. Unity of Pakistan remains central to US ambitions in the region. In the present circumstance any threat to the unity of Pakistan or any internal conflicts in Pakistan will cause the most serious blows to the US's global might. For this reason, despite the pressure from pro-democracy movements of US and Pakistan, policy makers in Washington were not willing to withdraw their support to Musharaf regime as long as he remained in control. But this present CJP crisis has exposed Musharaf's vulnerability and the West clearly has started realizing that even if he survives the present crisis (which seems difficult), he will be highly vulnerable in the face of future agitations. I guess, West, on its part, wants a smooth transition at this point and is looking for options in which Musharaf gradually and smoothly leaves the center-stage.

Even the establishment realizes that Musharaf’s time is up and he should quit. However, it is in the modalities that establishment and West disagree. Establishment believes that Musharaf should give way to another general or a controlled system similar to the one prevalent. They tend to ignore the fact that the present agitation is not anti-Musharaf (as were in the past against personas of Zia and Ayub – when did we ever hear slogans of napak fauj murdabad?) but is inherently against Army and so mere change of faces will further aggravate the situation. For this reason, West wants Musharaf to give way to the democratic process and leadership which currently is dominated by pro-war on terrorism leaders.

But West has its own limitations, it can at the most apply pressure on Musharaf and establishment and the final decision lies with the local agents. And in my personal opinion, both Musharaf and Establishment will fail us once more. For, Establishment will not be willing to think of a solution where their powers (not only in security matters but in the matters of corporate, real estate, and perks and privileges) are significantly curtailed. And the Czar has reached a psychopathic condition where he feels that he is the ultimate and only savior of the country and nothing can survive san him. Political leadership of the country has shown great flexibility in delaying the chaos eminent but to stop it is beyond their power and in the wake of a crisis the blame will solely be on Mush and Establishment.