Musharaf - The End Game
It has been a long delay and the span has been eventful. So I will be brief but will try touching all of them.
To me, Musharaf's days are numbered and his backers have given up on him. His source of strength had always been Army and foreign powers. Foreign powers have started believing that he is using this threat of extremism to stay in power and wants the threat to live on to further his rule. They also realize that he has been considerably weakened after March 9th and is vulnerable and thus will be a liability from here on. Army, just when disturbed at Musharaf turning into a liability and the fact that this time the anger is not against the man but the institution, is greatly disturbed at the attacks on its ranks and files in NWFP, Punjab and FATA. It seems that there is a realization in certain top quarters of Army that the extremist threat needs to be confronted head on and for this a civilian leadership is required for credibility. The question is whether this situation shake the ever-existent bloody civilian approach or not.
About the supreme court decision, this is my issue. Supreme Court at this stage when it is in the process of asserting its authority must not be tested on such issues. Court has not decided the issue of legitimacy for Musharaf and my expectation is that the issue will be with courts once again on Monday challenging accepting of Musharaf's nomination papers by Election Commission.
About Nawaz Sharif's return, he messed up big time. First he left ARD and formed APDM. Then he was trapped by APDM leaders to announce an ill-planned return and those leaders went to Dubai or safe hidings. And last but certainly not the least, he was so eager to score points and be the usual Bholo Badsha and Kakae da Kharak that he is that he did not even take his guarantors into confidence. Result, a) he is sitting in Jeddah cut out from the world, b) the field is open for his barather-e-yousaf to come back and play a role as a unified Muslim League, c) credibility of Supreme Court hit a serious blow and will be hard for CJP to restore it to where it was on July 20th, and d) just when the general was looking fragile and weak, NS has allowed the General to regain strength by successful display of oppressive machinery.
About Benazir's statement on Dr. A. Q. Khan, we must realize that for the whole World, from China to USA, the thought of nuclear weapons falling in the hands of terrorists is a nightmare and so we must represent ourselves as a responsible nuclear state and should be ready to take any such measures.
And last but certainly not the least, what happened in Islamabad today is criminal, barbaric and tyrant. The whole World must condemn it and more importantly salute to the journalists, lawyers, political activists, Ali Ahmad Kurd, Zamurd Khan and above all Aitzaz Ahsan for fighting for a right and just cause. Just when I fully realize the significance of a smooth transition of power, because keeping in view the socio-political scenario in the country if streets get violent there is going to be an all out civil war, I do not think Musharaf should be given any concession any more. Someone needs to persuade powers, both internal and external, that now they should step up the pressure for Musharaf's departure. I have always been an admirer of rationality and foresight of Benazir Bhutto in this crisis and just when I think she will make the right choices once more, this is a moment of reexamining for her too. I think this regime needs to be confronted by all the forces, internal and external, to ensure that it goes swift and fast with out the situation leading to violent agitation or civil war. The sooner the czar falls, the better we all will be.
To me, Musharaf's days are numbered and his backers have given up on him. His source of strength had always been Army and foreign powers. Foreign powers have started believing that he is using this threat of extremism to stay in power and wants the threat to live on to further his rule. They also realize that he has been considerably weakened after March 9th and is vulnerable and thus will be a liability from here on. Army, just when disturbed at Musharaf turning into a liability and the fact that this time the anger is not against the man but the institution, is greatly disturbed at the attacks on its ranks and files in NWFP, Punjab and FATA. It seems that there is a realization in certain top quarters of Army that the extremist threat needs to be confronted head on and for this a civilian leadership is required for credibility. The question is whether this situation shake the ever-existent bloody civilian approach or not.
About the supreme court decision, this is my issue. Supreme Court at this stage when it is in the process of asserting its authority must not be tested on such issues. Court has not decided the issue of legitimacy for Musharaf and my expectation is that the issue will be with courts once again on Monday challenging accepting of Musharaf's nomination papers by Election Commission.
About Nawaz Sharif's return, he messed up big time. First he left ARD and formed APDM. Then he was trapped by APDM leaders to announce an ill-planned return and those leaders went to Dubai or safe hidings. And last but certainly not the least, he was so eager to score points and be the usual Bholo Badsha and Kakae da Kharak that he is that he did not even take his guarantors into confidence. Result, a) he is sitting in Jeddah cut out from the world, b) the field is open for his barather-e-yousaf to come back and play a role as a unified Muslim League, c) credibility of Supreme Court hit a serious blow and will be hard for CJP to restore it to where it was on July 20th, and d) just when the general was looking fragile and weak, NS has allowed the General to regain strength by successful display of oppressive machinery.
About Benazir's statement on Dr. A. Q. Khan, we must realize that for the whole World, from China to USA, the thought of nuclear weapons falling in the hands of terrorists is a nightmare and so we must represent ourselves as a responsible nuclear state and should be ready to take any such measures.
And last but certainly not the least, what happened in Islamabad today is criminal, barbaric and tyrant. The whole World must condemn it and more importantly salute to the journalists, lawyers, political activists, Ali Ahmad Kurd, Zamurd Khan and above all Aitzaz Ahsan for fighting for a right and just cause. Just when I fully realize the significance of a smooth transition of power, because keeping in view the socio-political scenario in the country if streets get violent there is going to be an all out civil war, I do not think Musharaf should be given any concession any more. Someone needs to persuade powers, both internal and external, that now they should step up the pressure for Musharaf's departure. I have always been an admirer of rationality and foresight of Benazir Bhutto in this crisis and just when I think she will make the right choices once more, this is a moment of reexamining for her too. I think this regime needs to be confronted by all the forces, internal and external, to ensure that it goes swift and fast with out the situation leading to violent agitation or civil war. The sooner the czar falls, the better we all will be.
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