Projected Election 2008 Results

Following are results based on my calculations. Calculations were based on 2002 results where seats with less than 10000 vote margin were considered based on factors like
a) MMA split
b) Nawaz’s return and its impact in his strongholds
c) Winning/No.2 candidate switching party
d) Backlash to PPP in urban centers of central and northern Punjab
e) Boycott of APDM parties

Disclaimers are
a) A massive anti MMA wave in Frontier can change the results and might give gains to PPP S, PML N, PPP and ANP.

b) Country wide seat adjustments between parties.

c) A strong pro-PPP wave in Southern Punjab and Sindh.

d) Massive rigging.

e) A better PPP showing than expected in North and Central Punjab.

Margin of Error is +/-15%

Results are:
PML - Q (including PML-F, PML-Z and NA): 42-57
PML - N: 42-57
PPP: 89-102
MMA: 19-37
ANP: 0-5
PPP Sherpao: 2-2
MQM: 16-16
Total Seats: 272

Comments

Anonymous said…
Good analysis, but since I am following Pakistani politics since last 32 years and elections from 1985, I would say that following facts will play an important role in the elections (this I am saying if even 75 percent fair elections were held):

1. Assasination of Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto.
2. Lal masjid fiasco.
3. Killing of innocent people in FATA, Baluchistan, NWFP.
4. Treatment meted out to the Chief Justice, 60 judges of Superior Courts, Lawyers, Civil society people and media.
5. Killing and abduction of hundreds of innocent people and handing over to US.
6. Unprecedented price hike.
7. Recent Atta crisis and previous atta, sugar shortages and corruption involved in it.
8. MMAs dubious role in siding with Musharraf time again, especially of Moulana Fazlur Rehman.

Please note that the wave in favour of MMA in 2002 is down almost to zero and even Fazlur Rehman is loosing his seat in D.I.Khan, for PMLQ if you look at the results in 2002, thousands of votes were added for them. just check the seats in which PMLQs candidates won the election and you will see a strange phenomenon of voting even going to more than 50 percent. Actually voting was not more than 30 percent in those elections. Like in Lahore where Humayun Akhtar Khan was loosing by more than 20000 votes but ultimately he won.

There are many more factors like Akbar Bugtis death etc. but I guess those will be felt on regional basis. Similarly treatment meted out to Dr. Qadir Khan etc. but people in Pakistan do have small memory. Usually they dont dig out details which goes past three or four years.


With all these factors counting, my guess is:

PML - Q 12-18
PML - N: 85-100
PPP - 90-105
MMA:- 10-16
MQM:- 12-16
10:51 AM
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