Nawaz Sharif and His Options
Cat is out of the bag. Nawaz Sharif has left the coalition. For months, when I was saying that by taking a hard line on Musharraf, Nawaz is covertly helping Musharraf to stay in power and that this is his political necessity, no one was ready to believe this. The way events have unfolded post Musharraf, strengthens my argument.
First, let me quickly recap my argument. Mian sahab is a leader of 8-10 districts of Punjab, he has already swept those areas even winning against strong constituency candidates. Even if he keeps repeating this performance, he cannot win majority to form government. Repeating this performance seems unlikely because you cannot beat strong candidates every time. Even if he does, these districts alone do not give you enough numbers to form a government in Islamabad. His party has no roots in Pakhtunkhwah, Balochistan or Sindh and minimal presence in Saraiki belt and chances of him developing roots in those territories is bleak. So what is his best apparent bet, the tested 90s formula; have strong backing of like-minded forces in establishment. And what was his solution - two prong. First, have a favorable court in Iftikhar Chaudhary, and second hope his fundamentalists/ conservative backers strengthen themselves in establishment. With that in place, in the wake of elections, he could redo a 90 or 97 with "Angels on the Move".
Till he achieved those objectives, he fought tooth and nail to keep Musharraf in power, because Musharraf being in power will check PPP taking control of power centers, something that PPP can do with its majority and support of like-minded liberal allies. And how did Mian Sahab did it, by taking an extreme position vis-a-vis Musharraf and linking Musharraf's removal to restoration of "his" judges. His friends in media are conveniently ignoring that Nawaz left alliance not for breach of agreement on restoration of judges (which he time and again has said is his only agenda) but on nomination of presidential candidate (which is exactly my point - that he needs control over power centers to topple PPP government and have favorable elections like 90 and 97).
To be honest and fair to Nawaz Sharif, he is not his own man and many of his decisions were forced by his backers, both local and international. He owes a lot to them and they have one thing in common, to preserve the old order in polity, society and religion.
Many people think Saudi Arabia blindly tows US line, I differ. Saudi establishment has its own agenda for the world and region (like every establishment does) and this agenda is strongly linked to preservation of old order and some loose system on the lines of amir-ul-mominiyat in Muslim regions, consolidation of conservative values, and spread and consolidation of a typical religious philosophy. They have a lot of tools to bargain and in some cases even to lever on the US establishment and they use them whenever required. So much so, that in US people say that powerful people are in their pocket. We could see reasons of Americans funding a war against Soviets in Afghanistan. However, it is hard to explain why Saudis matched American funding $ to $, if not to spread their influence and their brand of Islam in the region?
But what Mian Sahab and his backers are failing to realize is the fact that times have changed and you cannot survive by being on the wrong side of the time. US policy is now monitored and governed by likes of Condi Rice, Joe Biden, Henry Kessinger and Hillary Clinton and not those who have strong relationship with Oil lobbies. Energy independence is a concept taking root fast on both sides of US and Western polity. Even in Saudi establishment, there are voices for more reform and opening up and being in sync with the world. As long as King Abdullah is there, one should not expect a major change in Saudi policy (to my reports which might be wrong, Saudis have refused to give oil to Pakistan till Sharif's are accommodated - earlier they linked it to acceptance of Sharifs' nomination papers), but slowly but gradually even Saudis have to change. And above all, in the wake of terror strikes on Pakistan Army, post Lal Masjid, there is a strong feeling in Army quarters that the menace of extremism has to be dealt with once and for all. It is a do or die situation for Army as well and at least the present top brass is committed to this task.
So what are the pros and cons of Mian Sahab's present strategy. Pros first. There might be a resistance within the ranks of Army against the present system which might force Army high command to resort to old order, though the chances of this happening are bleak. Also, there is a probaility that Saudis using their oil leverage can force Pakistani and US establishment to accomodate Nawaz on their/his terms. This also seems less likely because there is a lot of suspecion of Saudis' role in West and they will be reluctant to go all out in support for their man in Pakistan in these volatile times.
Now cons, he is fighting for an idea, the time of whose abandonment is here. The days of idea of winning elections by the support of establishment quarters are over. Either we play by the new rules or we risk destroying everything. He can delay the inevitable but cannot stop it. And the danger in delay is that if we resist the inevitable, time will force the change inevitable and we will have little control over it. Also, his support base is in the regions of Punjab where proximity to power centers and policy and decision making is an important consideration for a large section of voters. If the impression will start seeping in that Nawaz League is becoming irrelevant in power politics, his support base can shrink real fast. Revival of Q-league under or without Musharraf, with its strong constituency candidate base, is also a threat for Nawaz - another reason for him to be aligned with the system. In my humble opinion, Chaudharys are not stupid enough to join N right now when they can have a claim at the entire Anti-PPP political spectrum in the new system - partly thanks to Mian Sahab's rigidity and follies. The pillar on which Nawaz has been standing for years, media, is becoming discredited and people are getting vary of 24/7 news propaganda. And last but certainly not the least, if he decides to be an outsider, he does not have the luxury of having core base adament to sit out of power and face the system, something which PPP had the luxury of having in their fights against the system.
So he only has two options. Continue the way he is and become irrelevant. Or embrace the new order, having polity at the forefront with powers unprecidented and possibly stretchable, with time, to the levels of Western democracies. First way is tempting because it seems a shot at power in short term - though, in reality, it is a mere illusion. Second, embrace the system with open heart and mind and work to strengthen it. Change it from within. Accept the inevitables and wait for his turn. And trust me this way, he and his party has a better chance of being at the center stage in mid to long term. The choice is his. Whatever he decides, old order is bound to fall.
For a man surrounded by Jamat-i-Islami core, this is a sincere advice of a well-wisher.
First, let me quickly recap my argument. Mian sahab is a leader of 8-10 districts of Punjab, he has already swept those areas even winning against strong constituency candidates. Even if he keeps repeating this performance, he cannot win majority to form government. Repeating this performance seems unlikely because you cannot beat strong candidates every time. Even if he does, these districts alone do not give you enough numbers to form a government in Islamabad. His party has no roots in Pakhtunkhwah, Balochistan or Sindh and minimal presence in Saraiki belt and chances of him developing roots in those territories is bleak. So what is his best apparent bet, the tested 90s formula; have strong backing of like-minded forces in establishment. And what was his solution - two prong. First, have a favorable court in Iftikhar Chaudhary, and second hope his fundamentalists/ conservative backers strengthen themselves in establishment. With that in place, in the wake of elections, he could redo a 90 or 97 with "Angels on the Move".
Till he achieved those objectives, he fought tooth and nail to keep Musharraf in power, because Musharraf being in power will check PPP taking control of power centers, something that PPP can do with its majority and support of like-minded liberal allies. And how did Mian Sahab did it, by taking an extreme position vis-a-vis Musharraf and linking Musharraf's removal to restoration of "his" judges. His friends in media are conveniently ignoring that Nawaz left alliance not for breach of agreement on restoration of judges (which he time and again has said is his only agenda) but on nomination of presidential candidate (which is exactly my point - that he needs control over power centers to topple PPP government and have favorable elections like 90 and 97).
To be honest and fair to Nawaz Sharif, he is not his own man and many of his decisions were forced by his backers, both local and international. He owes a lot to them and they have one thing in common, to preserve the old order in polity, society and religion.
Many people think Saudi Arabia blindly tows US line, I differ. Saudi establishment has its own agenda for the world and region (like every establishment does) and this agenda is strongly linked to preservation of old order and some loose system on the lines of amir-ul-mominiyat in Muslim regions, consolidation of conservative values, and spread and consolidation of a typical religious philosophy. They have a lot of tools to bargain and in some cases even to lever on the US establishment and they use them whenever required. So much so, that in US people say that powerful people are in their pocket. We could see reasons of Americans funding a war against Soviets in Afghanistan. However, it is hard to explain why Saudis matched American funding $ to $, if not to spread their influence and their brand of Islam in the region?
But what Mian Sahab and his backers are failing to realize is the fact that times have changed and you cannot survive by being on the wrong side of the time. US policy is now monitored and governed by likes of Condi Rice, Joe Biden, Henry Kessinger and Hillary Clinton and not those who have strong relationship with Oil lobbies. Energy independence is a concept taking root fast on both sides of US and Western polity. Even in Saudi establishment, there are voices for more reform and opening up and being in sync with the world. As long as King Abdullah is there, one should not expect a major change in Saudi policy (to my reports which might be wrong, Saudis have refused to give oil to Pakistan till Sharif's are accommodated - earlier they linked it to acceptance of Sharifs' nomination papers), but slowly but gradually even Saudis have to change. And above all, in the wake of terror strikes on Pakistan Army, post Lal Masjid, there is a strong feeling in Army quarters that the menace of extremism has to be dealt with once and for all. It is a do or die situation for Army as well and at least the present top brass is committed to this task.
So what are the pros and cons of Mian Sahab's present strategy. Pros first. There might be a resistance within the ranks of Army against the present system which might force Army high command to resort to old order, though the chances of this happening are bleak. Also, there is a probaility that Saudis using their oil leverage can force Pakistani and US establishment to accomodate Nawaz on their/his terms. This also seems less likely because there is a lot of suspecion of Saudis' role in West and they will be reluctant to go all out in support for their man in Pakistan in these volatile times.
Now cons, he is fighting for an idea, the time of whose abandonment is here. The days of idea of winning elections by the support of establishment quarters are over. Either we play by the new rules or we risk destroying everything. He can delay the inevitable but cannot stop it. And the danger in delay is that if we resist the inevitable, time will force the change inevitable and we will have little control over it. Also, his support base is in the regions of Punjab where proximity to power centers and policy and decision making is an important consideration for a large section of voters. If the impression will start seeping in that Nawaz League is becoming irrelevant in power politics, his support base can shrink real fast. Revival of Q-league under or without Musharraf, with its strong constituency candidate base, is also a threat for Nawaz - another reason for him to be aligned with the system. In my humble opinion, Chaudharys are not stupid enough to join N right now when they can have a claim at the entire Anti-PPP political spectrum in the new system - partly thanks to Mian Sahab's rigidity and follies. The pillar on which Nawaz has been standing for years, media, is becoming discredited and people are getting vary of 24/7 news propaganda. And last but certainly not the least, if he decides to be an outsider, he does not have the luxury of having core base adament to sit out of power and face the system, something which PPP had the luxury of having in their fights against the system.
So he only has two options. Continue the way he is and become irrelevant. Or embrace the new order, having polity at the forefront with powers unprecidented and possibly stretchable, with time, to the levels of Western democracies. First way is tempting because it seems a shot at power in short term - though, in reality, it is a mere illusion. Second, embrace the system with open heart and mind and work to strengthen it. Change it from within. Accept the inevitables and wait for his turn. And trust me this way, he and his party has a better chance of being at the center stage in mid to long term. The choice is his. Whatever he decides, old order is bound to fall.
For a man surrounded by Jamat-i-Islami core, this is a sincere advice of a well-wisher.
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