Governance and Power Politics in Pakistan
Under Asif Ali Zardari, the set up at the center and in three provinces of Pakistan looks stable despite crisis emerging one after the other. The governance so far has been far from perfect. Administrative follies emerging from lack of experience of government affairs has dented government's credibility some what. Intensity of crisis is also testing Government hard. And just when Government's performance on judicial crisis, Musharraf, political reconciliation, avoiding financial crunch and risk of default, war against militancy, Balochistan, and post-Mumbai attacks conflict with India is praiseworthy, the crisis of electricity, gas and petrol, and rising inflation is more than overshadowing its accomplishment in commoners' perception. It seems the Government's misery in these issues is threefold. On one level, it inherited a burden of problems which in itself is mammoth and would test anyone. On second level, just when some of the brightest minds have been appointed to key public posts, there are other posts where the men in-charge have proven to be not up to the task. On third level, it has to do with bad media management. Media management itself is a shortcoming of this government on two fronts. First, it is the inability of key Government and PPP officials to defend the Government on its record (with very few exceptions). Second, the lackluster response to lack of regulation in a media industry that is turning more and more yellow every passing day. I guess it is about time that Government gives media (bodies of journalists and owners) a deadline to come up with a self-regulating mechanism acceptable to all parties, and comprising media representatives, legal minds, and govt representatives. If they are unable to meet the deadline, Government should come up with its own regulation mechanism through parliament. Our state, in its current state of affairs, cannot afford any further delay in this regulation.
Three more domestic issues that government will have to face sooner are a growing trade deficit, a fall in exports due to global recession, and energy crisis specially that of natural gas. Trade deficit and energy crisis have a very high correlation because our energy bill is a large part of our imports. Government needs to swiftly move to indigenous energy resources (including coal, solar and nuclear) to check the ever-growing trade deficit. Also, Pakistan does not have competitive advantage in textile any more and this export sector will die its natural death in next few years. This requires exploring alternative sectors where we can develop a competitive advantage (and please be mindful - it cannot be IT - we have missed the IT age). Just when an argument can be made about media's darling Punjab Government and what it has achieved (except inspecting people's wedding menus), it will be in the best interest of PPP not to indulge in a comparative argument and focus on covering its shortcomings.
That leads me to power politics. With exception of two outcomes, physical elimation of both COAS and President and/or or a mid-rank fundamentalist coup within the Army. PPP is here to stay for at least first term. My estimate is, it will take at least 8 years to come to a point, in absence of the two probable and scary incidents, where PPP government could be vulnerable, if things go the way they are. And these two scary events, are most likely to draw an internal and external response that will, God forbid, destroy the deepest of foundations of this nation state. The consequences will specially be dire for mummy-daddy retired fundo generals and their political front-ends and associates. Of course there is always a probability of other unforeseen events happening, but no one can predict how pig will look flying.
In number game, only a united front of all parties can pose a serious challenge to PPP in the event of any election. One mistake that most of the political analysts make is to analyze Pakistan from British or US political prism. Pakistani democracy is more similar to multiparty polities of Italy, Germany, Scandanavia and India. And a big player having a cross-sectional reach is hard to be fought. Also, whether Q decides to align with N or PPP, it is most likely to cause a a three way split between anti-Sharif and/or pro-power elements, Musharraf men, and pro-N. My assessment is that the last two will by and large go with N in the event of a split. This split removes the advantage of a unified Muslim League. The chances of MQM or ANP aligning with N are close to none in near future. As long as Asif Zardari is in presidency and Army is out of politics, same can be said about Maulana Fazal Ur Rehman. With these factors, Q, N, or a combination of two is not likely to match PPP in number game in the event of any non-engineered elections.
I also think that Q, most likely, will not split. The way N is playing with fire and is not willing to be part of the system, Q leadership sees an opportunity to appear as No.2 in the political spectrum. This opportunity would not let Chaudharies and other Q-league members align with N - for both Q and N are competing for No.2 spot and Q is the only one who realizes this.
For governance, I guess time has come where Asif Ali Zardari will have to make some tough decisions. If reports of N's involvement in electricity rioting are true, it is about time to come out of coalition in Punjab and try to form a government with Q. Also, in pursuit of N or any other spoilers, the aim should be to take political advantage and PPP should refrain from political vendetta - which might sound tempting as well as a political necessity but will be counter-productive. All political players are willing to play in the system except N. If it continues this way, it will be marginalized in no time. The only choice for N is to embrace the system with open heart and honesty and wait for the opportune moment - which will come in 5-8 years. If system survives, the country will survive in its current geo-constitutional framework. The time has come for N to decide between politics and talibanization/anarchy/Mughal-e-Azam.
On the other hand, for its own betterment and survival of the system, PPP should consider reducing the term of parliament and presidency to 4 years. To my assessment, PPP's vulnerability will start in its 5th year, when Asif Zardari will need to define and roll-out his vision and because of changing times BB's vision and plan will near expiry. If opponents put their act together, around 8th year, PPP's rule will be vulnerable. Mr. Zardari has been a good executioner. How good a planner and visionary will he be is a question-mark and this offers his opponents, a window of opportunity to be a step-ahead of him in vision and planning. Till then the opponents must wait and prepare and consolidate them in this new system. And for then, to ensure a smooth transition, if at all mandated by the people, PPP must reduce the term of parliament and presidency to 4 years.
One thing to be kept in mind for all players: the time for a liberal, democratic, progressive and welfare Pakistan with no-manipulation through hidden hands has come. Either Pakistan exists the way the time demands or it fails. May our nation be blessed!
Three more domestic issues that government will have to face sooner are a growing trade deficit, a fall in exports due to global recession, and energy crisis specially that of natural gas. Trade deficit and energy crisis have a very high correlation because our energy bill is a large part of our imports. Government needs to swiftly move to indigenous energy resources (including coal, solar and nuclear) to check the ever-growing trade deficit. Also, Pakistan does not have competitive advantage in textile any more and this export sector will die its natural death in next few years. This requires exploring alternative sectors where we can develop a competitive advantage (and please be mindful - it cannot be IT - we have missed the IT age). Just when an argument can be made about media's darling Punjab Government and what it has achieved (except inspecting people's wedding menus), it will be in the best interest of PPP not to indulge in a comparative argument and focus on covering its shortcomings.
That leads me to power politics. With exception of two outcomes, physical elimation of both COAS and President and/or or a mid-rank fundamentalist coup within the Army. PPP is here to stay for at least first term. My estimate is, it will take at least 8 years to come to a point, in absence of the two probable and scary incidents, where PPP government could be vulnerable, if things go the way they are. And these two scary events, are most likely to draw an internal and external response that will, God forbid, destroy the deepest of foundations of this nation state. The consequences will specially be dire for mummy-daddy retired fundo generals and their political front-ends and associates. Of course there is always a probability of other unforeseen events happening, but no one can predict how pig will look flying.
In number game, only a united front of all parties can pose a serious challenge to PPP in the event of any election. One mistake that most of the political analysts make is to analyze Pakistan from British or US political prism. Pakistani democracy is more similar to multiparty polities of Italy, Germany, Scandanavia and India. And a big player having a cross-sectional reach is hard to be fought. Also, whether Q decides to align with N or PPP, it is most likely to cause a a three way split between anti-Sharif and/or pro-power elements, Musharraf men, and pro-N. My assessment is that the last two will by and large go with N in the event of a split. This split removes the advantage of a unified Muslim League. The chances of MQM or ANP aligning with N are close to none in near future. As long as Asif Zardari is in presidency and Army is out of politics, same can be said about Maulana Fazal Ur Rehman. With these factors, Q, N, or a combination of two is not likely to match PPP in number game in the event of any non-engineered elections.
I also think that Q, most likely, will not split. The way N is playing with fire and is not willing to be part of the system, Q leadership sees an opportunity to appear as No.2 in the political spectrum. This opportunity would not let Chaudharies and other Q-league members align with N - for both Q and N are competing for No.2 spot and Q is the only one who realizes this.
For governance, I guess time has come where Asif Ali Zardari will have to make some tough decisions. If reports of N's involvement in electricity rioting are true, it is about time to come out of coalition in Punjab and try to form a government with Q. Also, in pursuit of N or any other spoilers, the aim should be to take political advantage and PPP should refrain from political vendetta - which might sound tempting as well as a political necessity but will be counter-productive. All political players are willing to play in the system except N. If it continues this way, it will be marginalized in no time. The only choice for N is to embrace the system with open heart and honesty and wait for the opportune moment - which will come in 5-8 years. If system survives, the country will survive in its current geo-constitutional framework. The time has come for N to decide between politics and talibanization/anarchy/Mughal-e-Azam.
On the other hand, for its own betterment and survival of the system, PPP should consider reducing the term of parliament and presidency to 4 years. To my assessment, PPP's vulnerability will start in its 5th year, when Asif Zardari will need to define and roll-out his vision and because of changing times BB's vision and plan will near expiry. If opponents put their act together, around 8th year, PPP's rule will be vulnerable. Mr. Zardari has been a good executioner. How good a planner and visionary will he be is a question-mark and this offers his opponents, a window of opportunity to be a step-ahead of him in vision and planning. Till then the opponents must wait and prepare and consolidate them in this new system. And for then, to ensure a smooth transition, if at all mandated by the people, PPP must reduce the term of parliament and presidency to 4 years.
One thing to be kept in mind for all players: the time for a liberal, democratic, progressive and welfare Pakistan with no-manipulation through hidden hands has come. Either Pakistan exists the way the time demands or it fails. May our nation be blessed!
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