Mesaq-e-Pakistan aur Truck ki Batti (Charter of Pakistan and a rush to Mirage)

The more I think about the idea of charter of Pakistan, the more I get struck by the absurdity of it. I think even Sharif himself is not sure what he means by Charter of Pakistan. If he means changes in constitutional structure, I believe that already is a settled matter in 18th amendment. May be there is some more room for issues pertaining to provincial autonomy and civil service reforms, but the forum for that is parliament. We are not living in Charter of democracy times any more and the country has a functional parliament that could pull something like 18th amendment unanimously and provides ample room to Mian Sahab to raise his concerns and seek consensus.

As far as the 25 year planning of economy etc goes, it is an absurdity to even think about it. We are way pass the raw-Keynesian economic times, where the central planners used to decide the direction of the economy. It is a near consensus that the best role for government is to monitor and control the free flowing economy through regulation, monetary policy and fiscal policy. Now all three, by their very nature, cannot have long term policy setting and are more of on-the-go mechanisms. We sitting here just cannot decide whether we should be investing in Textiles or automobiles or agriculture, for we cannot predict how the global economy will shape up and with this our competitive advantage and the viability of these sectors. 

So the question is why did he talk of it? Four words, it's politics stupid! Mian Sahab is being marginalized severely in the power structure of Pakistan. It can only be attributed to his follies and miscalculations and his dependence on his backers (who want to retain their clout through him). He, in two years post-Musharraf, has failed to emerge as the only leader of the right-wing (Muslim League). He has not been able to make in-roads into his previous support base of Army. His party is non-existent in 4 out of 5 provinces and even in his stronghold of Northern Punjab, he is losing constituencies to PPP and PML-Q. He had banked a great deal on judiciary over the last two years. But with lawyers back with PPP, his two blue-eyeds soon to retire, and no overt support visible for anti-government crusade from powers-that-be, this support base is shrinking fast too. This puts Sharif in a very tight spot, not only as a politician but also as a chief oligarch of oligarchy of radicalism cultivated under Zia.  The oligarchy is desperate to make a come back and is likely to revert to extreme measures in weeks to come. Not sure of success, his best hope is to create chaos that takes events to the point where powers-that-be are forced to deal with him for a stable setup. 

He is banking on MQM support for a no-confidence motion against the PM, thus trying an in-house change. This seems unlikely. First, MQM's first preference will be to resolve issues within the coalition. And second, no such attempt can be successful unless it has the support of entire parliamentary body of PML-Q. Second option is chaos on the streets. He controls government in Punjab and that can be used as the only base for an unrest. He might opt for a long march. However, he himself knows that it will be difficult to repeat a March 15th for reasons of lack of broad-based appeal and upward movement of PPP on learning curve. Unrest could also be sparked using sectarian rift during Moharram. The most fearful scenario will be an attempted mid-rank coup within the Army, instigated by some court order or independent of it. All these desperate measures will be aimed at ensuring at least enough chaos to force concerned powers to talk to Sharif. He has very little time to execute it because the politics of unified Muslim Leagues and growing clout of Chaudharys has posed existential threat to his power base. Charter of Pakistan is his rhetoric to serve as a justification for any of these extreme measures. Khadim-e-ala does not talk of khooni inqilab (bloody revolution) in thin air. Through this, he threatens the System to come to a compromise. It seems Sharifs never learnt the art of consolidation and growth. Only way they know is back doors and bullying.

In desperation of Sharifs and radical right, expect more turbulence and chaos in weeks to come. The question is will their party stand with them?