Defining Pakistan's Middle East Policy

Ever since Zahir Shah's dethroning led to a cycle of chaos in Afghanistan, no issue, not even 9/11, had the potential of impacting Pakistan more than what is happening in our West in the Middle East. A movement has spread from Iran to Morocco, shaking the very foundations of the order that has dominated the region for past century. The print and electronic media that blabbers day in day out on every non-issue has completely blacked out one of the most critical debates that should be taking place in Pakistan. The think tanks, pseudo intellectuals, and retired bureaucrats and generals are mum. And yet what is happening around has most far reaching consequences for Pakistan and calls for an open debate on a broad based policy formulation vis-a-vis the Mid-Eastern crisis. This piece is an attempt to discuss the guidelines of a comprehensive Middle East policy. 

Whether what is happening in Middle East is a consequence of CIA conspiracy, as is alleged by Saudis, Iranians and others, or is in the words of Benjamin Netanyahu, the rage of the masses of a region that has missed out on entire 20th century at discovering of their loss through the 21st century technology, can be argued. But more important than arguing on what led the region here is to see how to deal with what is at hand. And this proactive response should be the cornerstone of Pakistan's Middle East policy, for the country has lacked any till now.

Following more or less sum up Pakistan's key strategic concerns in Middle East:

1. Ensuring that the conflict does not turn into a sectarian war and any transition or consolidation of power in the region should not lead to igniting more sectarian conflicts or give the impression of dominance of one sect over the other. 
2. Any transition that needs to take place should take place in the smoothest of manners possible.
3. Not only our oil supplies but the oil prices should remain stable for the smooth functioning of a volatile economy like ours.
4. Ensuring safety and job security of the Pakistanis working in the Middle East.
5. The policy should, in principle, support human rights and aspirations of the masses.

A few months back, I had this thought that the stability and peace in Pakistan can be achieved through either being part of a South Asia that is at peace with China or being part of a Middle East that is politically and ideologically at peace with the US. First scenario seemed a tough ask but the second seemed outright impossible. And yet with in weeks an opportunity has arisen where because of the crumbling of the old order the region can actually move in a direction where it could harmonize with the free world's values. Pakistan has the opportunity to help the region move in a direction that could eventually let it be in sync with the modern world. And the million dollar question is, are the powerful of Pakistan willing to go that route? 

Looking at Pakistan's vital interests makes one thing crystal clear. There actually is no difference between the US interests in the region and the Pakistani interests. I am ready to debate anyone who suggests that the Pakistani interest is different from American interest in light of the emerging reality in the Middle East. Not only does the situation converge American and Pakistani interests, it also converges Pakistan's interests with its eastern neighbors i.e. India, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh. They all would want stable oil supply and flow of expatriate remittances from Middle East and would want to avoid the fallout of a sectarian conflict. 

Problems in Middle East have serious sectarian dimensions. In many countries, Shia populations (majorities or significant minorities) have been ruled by non-Shia regimes notorious for suppression of human rights. With the recent turmoil, if the chaos ensues, the Middle East can fall into an endless cycle of sectarian violence, civil wars and wars. Post Iranian revolution radicalization of sects by Arabs and Iranians in Pakistan have turned the country into a stockpile of explosives which will be on fire in the event of eruption of sectarian conflict across Middle East. The delicate balance of our society, specially amid other challenges the nation faces, is not likely to survive this fire. The only survival is in proactive prevention. 

The reliance of Arab regimes on Pakistan to deal with the situation gives Pakistan an opportunity to influence Arab regimes to take a path of smooth transition to more representative governments and more open societies. Any support to the regimes should not only be linked to job security of Pakistanis and supply of oil but should also be conditional to a commitment to a schedule of reforms. Pakistan should collaborate with US and other neighbors to convince the regimes of the inevitability of changing course. Pakistani establishment and Arab regimes, both, must realize that the time for the old order is gone. They can either find their way through the new realities emerging in the region or will be swamped by the flow of events. 

Pakistan must also be mindful that its security assistance to the Arab regimes, though needed to control the chaos, can potentially be viewed as an Anti-Shia act by Shia populations of Middle East and outside. To quell this perception, it is high time that Pakistan initiates a contact with masses in Middle East and Shia leadership in the region. Our Middle East policy, thus far, has been being cronies/mercenaries for the monarchs with no emphasis on engaging the people of the region. Opening up of contact with Ayatollah Sistani should be the minimum Pakistan should do. Just as Pakistan and allies need to convince Arab regimes on rapid and intense reforms, so do they need to convince Shia leadership in the region to avoid sectarian power play. Most importantly, all stakeholders must ensure that Iran does not take undue advantage of the turmoil in Sunni-ruled Arab states. For Mr. Sistani, any transition that gives suppressed populations more say in the power structure will be a welcome move as has been evident in Iraq. For Iran, however, cornered by its own internal mass uprising, turning the conflict sectarian will provide a much needed respite from internal chaos and will give it an opportunity to enhance its influence in the Arab world. This runs contrary to the interest of all stakeholders in the region. 

Despite my strong opposition to Pakistan's intervention in issues beyond its borders, the situation in Middle East has potential repercussions that require a proactive Pakistani role in the region. The role should be based on two key principles:

1. Supporting the aspirations of the people of the region and
2. Achieving these aspirations in a manner as smooth as possible without violence or chaos

The help we extend to regimes should strictly be inline with these guiding principles. I hope Pakistani establishment does not repeat the mistake of picking up favorites or letting the foreign policy be hostage to religious/sectarian ideology. The situation requires careful handling. Success or failure can ultimately determine our future and our internal stability.