Karachi - between fairness and practicality.
Zulfikar Mirza's press conference has brought to fore the reality which everyone knew but no one wanted to spell. That MQM sits on top of a mafia and uses violence to further its political objective is a no-brainer. Also is no-brainer the fact that the other parties including ANP, PPP, Sunni Tehrik have resorted to organized armed wings in Karachi in retaliation to MQM's violent tactics. So, for all the obvious reasons, Mirza's press conference has been hailed by vast majority, Sindhis, Balochs, Pathans, Punjabis etc. Mirza is a hero of PPP voters in Sindh as well as PTI and PML-N voters and ANPers. And just when the Pandora has been opened, there are calls for Justice and cutting MQM to size. These demands for justice and fairplay, however, go beyond the realm of practicality for one simple reasons. They ignore the fact that MQM, apart from being a mafia is also a political reality having predominant support among Hindi-belt migrants and there will be strong political consequence of any action aimed at crushing MQM, for it still has more fire power and voters than any of its opponents in Karachi. In short, the desire simply ignores the fabric, support, corporate backing and fire power of MQM.
Let us have a brief roundup of what is happening in Karachi and why? Migrant community of Karachi has always counted on political leadership that has been different from the leadership recognized by the mainstream of Pakistan. However, despite that rejection, all political forces had been allowed to operate freely in Karachi and at different points had drawn partial political support from the metropolis. In 1980s, in retaliation to JI's armed domination of campuses emerged a force (MQM) which not only dominated the political scene of Karachi but also made it a no-go area for all other political entities through mafia network. MQM's main political strength stemmed from migrant community that formed the majority of Karachi's population back then. Through mass support and violent tactics, any opposition to MQM in Karachi was suffocated more and more every passing day. In late 80s and early 90s MQM had held the city and could cripple the national economy anytime it deemed fit by choking Karachi. Elements of State realizing the situation tried to hit back at MQM in 90s thrice. Though political compulsions of establishment hampered and reversed the progress, as a result of operations, specially the second one under Gen. Babar, the violent capability of MQM was reasonably curtailed. Then came General Musharraf and with him two things happened. First, MQM was allowed a free run. Its mafia men detained were freed. Its operatives who had fled the country in 90s were allowed to return to Karachi. And according to intelligence sources, through Shipping ministry, it was given a free ride to import any amount and type of weaponry into Karachi. Just when this was happening, Karachi was undergoing a major demographic shift. Migrants who used to be a majority in the city were turning into a minority because of influx of people from KP and Balochistan. According to 2008 statistics, Migrants now constitute 49% of Karachi population.
On one hand, the people from non-migrant communities, started seeing economic sense in creating mafias. On the other, the political parties were troubled by MQM's hijacking of polling stations to deny them their fair share of the mandate. This led to political patronage of mafia by other political parties. PPP, which had a stronghold in Baloch areas, started patronizing Baloch mafia. ANP, in the mean time, had taken over the Pashtun mafia. And so the gang-wars in Karachi turned into high profile political turf wars.
On one hand, the people from non-migrant communities, started seeing economic sense in creating mafias. On the other, the political parties were troubled by MQM's hijacking of polling stations to deny them their fair share of the mandate. This led to political patronage of mafia by other political parties. PPP, which had a stronghold in Baloch areas, started patronizing Baloch mafia. ANP, in the mean time, had taken over the Pashtun mafia. And so the gang-wars in Karachi turned into high profile political turf wars.
There are some suggestions that the rise of these counter-MQM mafias was in part facilitated by Establishment, for Establishment was vary of MQM's muscle, post discovery of RPGs and Anti-tank weapons from MQM operatives, and wanted to counter MQM's strength. So, now we are at a point where these mafias exist in Karachi and they are in a battle to wield control over markets and turf. This battle is what has caused trouble in Karachi in past three years. For others, battle will end only if MQM gives them control as per their share (which some of them think is the whole pie). For MQM, concession might lead to a never-ending spiral of losing control over the city it has controlled for three decades.
MQM, the mightiest of them all, can take them all but the process will be very costly for MQM. On the other hand, there could be an all out security operation in Karachi to cleanse the city of its mafias. But, just when this operation is capable of wiping out mafias, including the one run by MQM, the economic and political cost of it will be unbearable.
With this balance sheet, in sight, rather than going for an all out operation that would be long and will cripple national economy, the State has decided to create a power equilibrium where all sides are given a share based on their relative size and strength and ensuring that if anyone wants to break the equilibrium, everyone will be destroyed. If it is enforced by the backing of State, State being the mightiest of actors, could take on anyone who goes beyond his specified share and thus all will be forced to stay in line. For MQM, it will be a better alternative to an all out security operation, in which the economy will suffer but MQM will ultimately be damaged significantly. This practical solution presents the best solution for all sides. State will end up creating a balance of power where sides are pitched in such a way that none of them could move to disturb the equilibrium. MQM will avoid an all out operation. And ANP, PPP and others will get their relative share of the political bargain. This equilibrium is the plan being rolled out in Karachi for now.
But implementing this bargain will be a tough nut to crack. It will be hard for MQM to let go part of what it used to own. Even if leadership agrees, the local splinters of mafia can rebel against the leadership and thus take things to an all out operation. It is in this context that Altaf Hussain has given the message to his cadres that going back to India is not an option and MQM supporters and migrants community has to live here. My sense is that just when the final bargain will be relative to each side's size, MQM will be given slightly more than its due share to compensate for what it will concede.
Implementation is an issue on other side as well. Pathan and Baloch (backed by ANP and PPP) mafias feel they have cornered MQM in last few years. They smell the blood and think that they can go for the kill. Same is the feeling among many of Sindhi cadre of PPP. Just when the top leadership of ANP and PPP seems to be on-board for a new equilibrium, because of these sentiments, they too fear rebellion in their ranks.
What the local cadre of ANP and PPP fails to realize is the fact that MQM is not only a mafia and political party but a mafia raised by Corporate Karachi to preserve its interest. Hit worst by 70s nationalization, MQM was aided and funded by Karachi's business tycoons, created at the first opportunity they got post-nationalization, to make sure their interests are protected in the State. Such mafia exists in every major business center sans a strong corporate law infrastructure. MQM has delivered its end of the bargain with business community. Be it protecting the businesses, facilitating transactions, or protecting interests of business community on issues like VAT, it has always been there. It was this business community which introduced MQM to military junta of Zia. So, contrary to Mr. Mirza's plea to business community to back him sans Bhatta, Karachi's business community will not abandon MQM. Even the State knows that pushed pass a brink, MQM will be left with no other option but to retaliate. Thus leading to the option of an all out operation. So despite their wishes, MQM can be cut down but can certainly not be forced out.
The fear of rebellion among splinters is the biggest obstacle in attaining the new equilibrium. It also seems that Altaf Hussain's consent for the arrangement is tentative to say the least. On his part, as architect of the formula and political head of establishment, President Zardari is likely to go all out to ensure the success of this equilibrium formula. He will have full backing of Asfand Yar Wali, though concessions will be hard to be drawn from ANP. Whether the new equilibrium is attained or impractical wishes for a fair solution lead us to circumstances which the State wants to avoid remains to be seen.
In the mean time, let us keep speculating whether Mr. Mirza represents the rebellion among local cadres who think that MQM can be wiped out or is there to force Altaf Hussain to the bargain.
With this balance sheet, in sight, rather than going for an all out operation that would be long and will cripple national economy, the State has decided to create a power equilibrium where all sides are given a share based on their relative size and strength and ensuring that if anyone wants to break the equilibrium, everyone will be destroyed. If it is enforced by the backing of State, State being the mightiest of actors, could take on anyone who goes beyond his specified share and thus all will be forced to stay in line. For MQM, it will be a better alternative to an all out security operation, in which the economy will suffer but MQM will ultimately be damaged significantly. This practical solution presents the best solution for all sides. State will end up creating a balance of power where sides are pitched in such a way that none of them could move to disturb the equilibrium. MQM will avoid an all out operation. And ANP, PPP and others will get their relative share of the political bargain. This equilibrium is the plan being rolled out in Karachi for now.
But implementing this bargain will be a tough nut to crack. It will be hard for MQM to let go part of what it used to own. Even if leadership agrees, the local splinters of mafia can rebel against the leadership and thus take things to an all out operation. It is in this context that Altaf Hussain has given the message to his cadres that going back to India is not an option and MQM supporters and migrants community has to live here. My sense is that just when the final bargain will be relative to each side's size, MQM will be given slightly more than its due share to compensate for what it will concede.
Implementation is an issue on other side as well. Pathan and Baloch (backed by ANP and PPP) mafias feel they have cornered MQM in last few years. They smell the blood and think that they can go for the kill. Same is the feeling among many of Sindhi cadre of PPP. Just when the top leadership of ANP and PPP seems to be on-board for a new equilibrium, because of these sentiments, they too fear rebellion in their ranks.
What the local cadre of ANP and PPP fails to realize is the fact that MQM is not only a mafia and political party but a mafia raised by Corporate Karachi to preserve its interest. Hit worst by 70s nationalization, MQM was aided and funded by Karachi's business tycoons, created at the first opportunity they got post-nationalization, to make sure their interests are protected in the State. Such mafia exists in every major business center sans a strong corporate law infrastructure. MQM has delivered its end of the bargain with business community. Be it protecting the businesses, facilitating transactions, or protecting interests of business community on issues like VAT, it has always been there. It was this business community which introduced MQM to military junta of Zia. So, contrary to Mr. Mirza's plea to business community to back him sans Bhatta, Karachi's business community will not abandon MQM. Even the State knows that pushed pass a brink, MQM will be left with no other option but to retaliate. Thus leading to the option of an all out operation. So despite their wishes, MQM can be cut down but can certainly not be forced out.
The fear of rebellion among splinters is the biggest obstacle in attaining the new equilibrium. It also seems that Altaf Hussain's consent for the arrangement is tentative to say the least. On his part, as architect of the formula and political head of establishment, President Zardari is likely to go all out to ensure the success of this equilibrium formula. He will have full backing of Asfand Yar Wali, though concessions will be hard to be drawn from ANP. Whether the new equilibrium is attained or impractical wishes for a fair solution lead us to circumstances which the State wants to avoid remains to be seen.
In the mean time, let us keep speculating whether Mr. Mirza represents the rebellion among local cadres who think that MQM can be wiped out or is there to force Altaf Hussain to the bargain.
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