Let Pakistan Move beyond Old Establishment Order
As the elections approach, the talk of establishment's meddling in political system is resonating again. Only today, two statements by two of the leading political leaders of the country hint at establishment's (read security establishment's) role in country's politics. Both Nawaz Sharif and Ch. Shujat Hussain today hinted at hidden hands' intervention in political space. This follows a series of acquisitions that security establishment or elements in it have been at the center of Imran Khan's rise and PTI's successive political activities. This all is not only unpleasant and unfortunate but also seems a waste of energy on part of those trying to engineer politics. What Pakistan needs is to move beyond the existing notion of establishment to create a more broad based, all inclusive establishment. The new establishment will comprise a civil-military compromise on key national security issues where Army will have a decisive say in military, combat-security, and military administration issues while Army's security considerations and civilians' considerations vis-a-vis economic and trade relations and other foreign policy issues will define the core of national security policy. The players in Pakistan's power politics, includng Army, will be damaged heavily if they do not succumb to this emerging reality.
On none the responsibility of establishment of the new order of civil-military relationship is more than on Army and PPP. For its part Army must realize that time to create and recreate artificial alternatives to popular leadership is over. If they fail to come to terms with this fact, for elements within Army, the failing of Imran Khan led alliance in the next general election to secure a sizable share of seats will make the reality clearer. In all likelihood, it will be 3rd or 4th largest bloc in the next elections. Also, past four years must have shed many of Army's fears of nation's leadership's vulnerabilities on national security. Let me take the liberty to say that the views of civilian and military leadership of the country have never been closer on the national security outlook. More importantly, in past four years, Pakistan has experienced the emergence of a mechanism where the Army's key concerns vis-a-vis security get addressed with civilian leadership taking the bulk of brunt of these decisions and gives valuable input on policy definition. For the first time, Army has made itself accountable to parliament with successive briefings on key national security issues. We have entered a phase where things are slowly but gradually moving in a direction where Army will act as an influential and powerful player in policy making under civilian rule, as happens in mature states. These developments, alone, should give Army the confidence to move beyond creating and recreating its political prodigies. This coupled with the fact that Army's ability to create a prodigy is significantly curtailed in today's time should keep it away from any such misadventures which potentially could damage its image and power significantly. And lastly, Army's last two creations in the political arena, Nawaz Sharif and religious extremists, are enough to nip any such thoughts on part of Army. In a time when almost all major political entities of the country are ready to work on national security issues in consultation with Army, misadventure of creating prodigies will be counter-productive and will damage Army's interest as an institution and Pakistan's interest as a state.
But it is not Army alone which needs to move beyond the old establishment order towards a newer one. Political parties also have an important role to play. In past, Army's meddling in politics and its drive and ability to marginalize political forces led to a mentality in political parties where they would portray themselves as victims of Army's assault. With curtailed ability of Army to meddle in politics and because of its efforts to distance itself (extent of this is arguable) from politics, now political class must also move beyond that victim mindset.
To its credit, PPP leadership has tried to move beyond but its core and cadre still has memories of Army rules in the country. It is the responsibility of leadership to make the workers and voters make this transition and train them to make the transition from party of opposition to party of power. With Pakistan's political landscape, PPP has to assume this role of party of power for long and it will be unfortunate if party's ranks and files are not ready for the new role.
As for the statements of two leaders, NS and Shujat, a journalist friend said that Shujat has no complaints with Army or ISI but his complaints were directed at ex-servicemen residing in West Ridge and other areas of Rawalpindi who are using their influence in bureaucracy, political class, media, and ranks of Army and ISI (and let me add extremists) to bolster Imran Khan and to an extent Nawaz Sharif.
As for Nawaz Sharif, he is one politician who needs to move the most to get in sync with today's Pakistan. He still is stuck in 90s and believes in the fallacies that he and his patrons created then. His core political aim seems vendetta against Pervez Musharraf and Army for the humiliation he faced. He must realize that the very fact that his party came to power in Punjab and the same Musharraf was forced to take oath from his ministers was a vendetta enough. It is time to move on and embrace the system. The times when the hidden hands would arrange for him mandates are gone and now he will have to find his ways within the system with the mandate and vote bank he has. If MQM can become powerful with its 25 seats, Mr. Sharif can do a lot more with his 50-100 seats. More so, unlike MQM, his numbers in present political setup allowed him to consolidate and expand gradually into forming a government in elections ahead. An opportunity he let pass because of his own follies and failure to read the situation.
As for PTI, well they are too new to contribute anything, but with time when the injections of their backers will fail to bring them into any decisive position in nation's power politics, they will realize that their politics will rely on working within the political system, cooperating with political parties. It will be either this or PTI's current urban Punjab popularity will fade like Tehrik-e-Istaklal's popularity of mid-60s.
At a time when Pakistan's civil and military leadership is moving together in carving a way ahead for nation in Eurasia, South Asia, and global economic and political order, and through a turbulent Middle East, it is imperative that they also consolidate this new era of civil-military partnership to establish a new establishment order. Not everything is settled between the civilians and military but the way ahead is through mutual consultation and moving with realization of power realities. Many things will correct in civil-military relationship in the due course but in a way in which civilians' gain will not seem Army's humiliation but a joint effort for a better Pakistan. We have wasted so many energies in civil-military confrontation and the time is ripe to channelize energies for a harmonious and strong Pakistan. The new establishment order is not merely a hope but is the only way forward for Pakistan.
On none the responsibility of establishment of the new order of civil-military relationship is more than on Army and PPP. For its part Army must realize that time to create and recreate artificial alternatives to popular leadership is over. If they fail to come to terms with this fact, for elements within Army, the failing of Imran Khan led alliance in the next general election to secure a sizable share of seats will make the reality clearer. In all likelihood, it will be 3rd or 4th largest bloc in the next elections. Also, past four years must have shed many of Army's fears of nation's leadership's vulnerabilities on national security. Let me take the liberty to say that the views of civilian and military leadership of the country have never been closer on the national security outlook. More importantly, in past four years, Pakistan has experienced the emergence of a mechanism where the Army's key concerns vis-a-vis security get addressed with civilian leadership taking the bulk of brunt of these decisions and gives valuable input on policy definition. For the first time, Army has made itself accountable to parliament with successive briefings on key national security issues. We have entered a phase where things are slowly but gradually moving in a direction where Army will act as an influential and powerful player in policy making under civilian rule, as happens in mature states. These developments, alone, should give Army the confidence to move beyond creating and recreating its political prodigies. This coupled with the fact that Army's ability to create a prodigy is significantly curtailed in today's time should keep it away from any such misadventures which potentially could damage its image and power significantly. And lastly, Army's last two creations in the political arena, Nawaz Sharif and religious extremists, are enough to nip any such thoughts on part of Army. In a time when almost all major political entities of the country are ready to work on national security issues in consultation with Army, misadventure of creating prodigies will be counter-productive and will damage Army's interest as an institution and Pakistan's interest as a state.
But it is not Army alone which needs to move beyond the old establishment order towards a newer one. Political parties also have an important role to play. In past, Army's meddling in politics and its drive and ability to marginalize political forces led to a mentality in political parties where they would portray themselves as victims of Army's assault. With curtailed ability of Army to meddle in politics and because of its efforts to distance itself (extent of this is arguable) from politics, now political class must also move beyond that victim mindset.
To its credit, PPP leadership has tried to move beyond but its core and cadre still has memories of Army rules in the country. It is the responsibility of leadership to make the workers and voters make this transition and train them to make the transition from party of opposition to party of power. With Pakistan's political landscape, PPP has to assume this role of party of power for long and it will be unfortunate if party's ranks and files are not ready for the new role.
As for the statements of two leaders, NS and Shujat, a journalist friend said that Shujat has no complaints with Army or ISI but his complaints were directed at ex-servicemen residing in West Ridge and other areas of Rawalpindi who are using their influence in bureaucracy, political class, media, and ranks of Army and ISI (and let me add extremists) to bolster Imran Khan and to an extent Nawaz Sharif.
As for Nawaz Sharif, he is one politician who needs to move the most to get in sync with today's Pakistan. He still is stuck in 90s and believes in the fallacies that he and his patrons created then. His core political aim seems vendetta against Pervez Musharraf and Army for the humiliation he faced. He must realize that the very fact that his party came to power in Punjab and the same Musharraf was forced to take oath from his ministers was a vendetta enough. It is time to move on and embrace the system. The times when the hidden hands would arrange for him mandates are gone and now he will have to find his ways within the system with the mandate and vote bank he has. If MQM can become powerful with its 25 seats, Mr. Sharif can do a lot more with his 50-100 seats. More so, unlike MQM, his numbers in present political setup allowed him to consolidate and expand gradually into forming a government in elections ahead. An opportunity he let pass because of his own follies and failure to read the situation.
As for PTI, well they are too new to contribute anything, but with time when the injections of their backers will fail to bring them into any decisive position in nation's power politics, they will realize that their politics will rely on working within the political system, cooperating with political parties. It will be either this or PTI's current urban Punjab popularity will fade like Tehrik-e-Istaklal's popularity of mid-60s.
At a time when Pakistan's civil and military leadership is moving together in carving a way ahead for nation in Eurasia, South Asia, and global economic and political order, and through a turbulent Middle East, it is imperative that they also consolidate this new era of civil-military partnership to establish a new establishment order. Not everything is settled between the civilians and military but the way ahead is through mutual consultation and moving with realization of power realities. Many things will correct in civil-military relationship in the due course but in a way in which civilians' gain will not seem Army's humiliation but a joint effort for a better Pakistan. We have wasted so many energies in civil-military confrontation and the time is ripe to channelize energies for a harmonious and strong Pakistan. The new establishment order is not merely a hope but is the only way forward for Pakistan.
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