A Probable Game Plan
PPP's strength lies in her worker base. The worker base is committed to the cause of democracy and is anti-establishment in essence. Anyone making an arrangement with Army will be considered a traitor in the ranks of PPP and cannot be accepted. The leadership revolves around Benazir Bhutto and it will be hard for anyone to succeed her.
Everyone will agree that a free and fair election, held today, will lead to nothing but PPP in power with quite a sizeable majority along with governments at Punjab and Sindh for sure and NWFP and Balochistan probably. Now if the present regime goes for election now and it sows the seed of doubt that all this is being done as a result of a deal between PPP and establishment, the credibility of that majority would diminish. A little help from some high ranking PPP men (in the form of their statements showing eagerness to have dialogue with the men in Khaki) will strengthen that view even further. If they decide to work with Musharaf in presidency, it will cement that belief even further in the minds of Pakistanis in general and party workers in particular.
Even Nawaz Sharif, with his political force being severely marginalized by Musharaf in the last 6 years, will be forced to join hands with mullahs under the growing impression of a PPP-Musharaf deal and the actions of few PPP top men to bypass PML-N in the entire process.
Any government which takes over from the present one is least likely to deliver in short term because of a number of reasons.
a) Ever increasing disparity between rich and poor.
b) The entire strength of economy is based on hyped sectors (e.g. property etc.) and any change in government, will cause that hype to fade, leading to, probably, the biggest financial scam in the history of Pakistan.
d) Religious right has gained a considerable ground in the country and will turn out to be quite a violent opposition.
e) And with the government coming to power under the umbrella of establishment, there wouldn’t be any radical decision on issues like domestic policy, defense spending and provincial harmony.
A government facing abovementioned problems along with a crisis of credibility amongst workers and general public is most likely to fail. Not only that but this will cause considerable damage to PPP as a political party especially in her hard core worker base and her influence will be severely diminished. Now eliminate BB physically and a party already in disarray will be a history. With PPP in shambles and a general election being called at the failure of a PPP government, religious right, which now will have Nawaz Sharif under their fold, is the most likely winner because in an environment where masses have become indifferent to the political process, the only one who could bring their workers to polling booths after PPP is mullahs.
A government of religious right in center and NWFP and Balochistan and mullahs part of collation governments in Sindh and Punjab in a nuclear Pakistan - man where are we heading to? Of course a UN resolution authorizing the use of force against Pakistan to destroy her nuclear assets. A military assault and take over and denuclearization of Pakistan and then establishment of a government on lines of Iraq and Afghanistan. An ideal plot for a conspiracy theory thriller.
One can think that US wouldn't go that far with Pakistan especially when here we have governments that have been friendly to US for last 28 years and have caused no trouble whatsoever to US interests. Rather they have been supportive in pursuing the US agenda. But there are a couple of problems with this hypothesis.
a) For US and West and even China, the fear of nuclear weapons falling in the hands of terrorist is a nightmare. This fear is neither unfounded nor unjustified. With Pakistan being proven to be the epicenter of international proliferation activities in the past decade, everyone believes that the root exists here. They also understand that Dr. A.Q.Khan was just a mere pawn in this whole proliferation business and there are others involved in it too. However, the US has to bear those others for her own self interests. However, with these others still influential in Pakistan, the US fears the probability of similar proliferation attempts in future. This leaves US and the West with no other option but to denuclearize Pakistan. For this they have two options, either they can force Pakistani government to denuclearize or they will have to carry out a military action to take control of this nuclear programme.
b) No government in Pakistan can denuclearize Pakistan (even in case of military government, anyone trying to attempt this will face stiff resistance from within that could lead to a probable toppling).
c) Pakistan is neither Afghanistan nor Iraq, and a lot of countries strongly depend on Pakistan for a number of reasons. E.g. China wouldn't let anyone attack Pakistan just to decapitate Pakistan of her nukes (though nukes falling in the hands of Muslim terrorists in China is a fear for China too). But with these nukes in the hands of a government led by the Mullahs and China will have no other option but to approve a UN-led attack.
This is a real scary scenario and even if its probability could be less than 1%, it deserves our attention because the stakes are too high. Things seems grim but there certainly is a way out.
a) We should ensure that we honestly expose all the elements that were involved in the proliferation activities. And since none of them will be of the stature of Dr. Khan, should bring them to justice. This will help us regain credibility in the international community.
b) A strong diplomatic effort should be launched to up ease friends that we wouldn't let our territory to be used for any extremist activities.
c) We should ensure to make Pakistan a liberal state with high respect for human rights, democracy and freedom of thought.
d) A Pakistan with strong institutions will help shed the fears of World in general.
e) We should try to establish a Pakistani brand name in the industries that resound liberal (e.g. show biz, tourism, IT, music etc.)
f) We should all be committed to resist the fundamentalism and extremism in this country in every possible way to the fullest of our capacity not because Musharaf says so but because this is what we really have to do. Their attempts to brainwash the children and youth to be fanatics should be dealt with a powerful campaign to influence people by showing them what is right and what is wrong.
g) In the political field, the mullah must be dealt politically and not by mere words. In the process, the liberal forces must retain a high moral ground.
To me, it is too late to convince US that we are innocent or we will remain innocent in the future. It is about convincing the International community in general, especially our friends and regional powers.
The purpose of putting this on the blog is to encourage a healthy debate on the issue. Please let me know what you feel about this and why you feel so? A collective discussion and sharing of ideas might help us reach concrete conclusions.
Everyone will agree that a free and fair election, held today, will lead to nothing but PPP in power with quite a sizeable majority along with governments at Punjab and Sindh for sure and NWFP and Balochistan probably. Now if the present regime goes for election now and it sows the seed of doubt that all this is being done as a result of a deal between PPP and establishment, the credibility of that majority would diminish. A little help from some high ranking PPP men (in the form of their statements showing eagerness to have dialogue with the men in Khaki) will strengthen that view even further. If they decide to work with Musharaf in presidency, it will cement that belief even further in the minds of Pakistanis in general and party workers in particular.
Even Nawaz Sharif, with his political force being severely marginalized by Musharaf in the last 6 years, will be forced to join hands with mullahs under the growing impression of a PPP-Musharaf deal and the actions of few PPP top men to bypass PML-N in the entire process.
Any government which takes over from the present one is least likely to deliver in short term because of a number of reasons.
a) Ever increasing disparity between rich and poor.
b) The entire strength of economy is based on hyped sectors (e.g. property etc.) and any change in government, will cause that hype to fade, leading to, probably, the biggest financial scam in the history of Pakistan.
d) Religious right has gained a considerable ground in the country and will turn out to be quite a violent opposition.
e) And with the government coming to power under the umbrella of establishment, there wouldn’t be any radical decision on issues like domestic policy, defense spending and provincial harmony.
A government facing abovementioned problems along with a crisis of credibility amongst workers and general public is most likely to fail. Not only that but this will cause considerable damage to PPP as a political party especially in her hard core worker base and her influence will be severely diminished. Now eliminate BB physically and a party already in disarray will be a history. With PPP in shambles and a general election being called at the failure of a PPP government, religious right, which now will have Nawaz Sharif under their fold, is the most likely winner because in an environment where masses have become indifferent to the political process, the only one who could bring their workers to polling booths after PPP is mullahs.
A government of religious right in center and NWFP and Balochistan and mullahs part of collation governments in Sindh and Punjab in a nuclear Pakistan - man where are we heading to? Of course a UN resolution authorizing the use of force against Pakistan to destroy her nuclear assets. A military assault and take over and denuclearization of Pakistan and then establishment of a government on lines of Iraq and Afghanistan. An ideal plot for a conspiracy theory thriller.
One can think that US wouldn't go that far with Pakistan especially when here we have governments that have been friendly to US for last 28 years and have caused no trouble whatsoever to US interests. Rather they have been supportive in pursuing the US agenda. But there are a couple of problems with this hypothesis.
a) For US and West and even China, the fear of nuclear weapons falling in the hands of terrorist is a nightmare. This fear is neither unfounded nor unjustified. With Pakistan being proven to be the epicenter of international proliferation activities in the past decade, everyone believes that the root exists here. They also understand that Dr. A.Q.Khan was just a mere pawn in this whole proliferation business and there are others involved in it too. However, the US has to bear those others for her own self interests. However, with these others still influential in Pakistan, the US fears the probability of similar proliferation attempts in future. This leaves US and the West with no other option but to denuclearize Pakistan. For this they have two options, either they can force Pakistani government to denuclearize or they will have to carry out a military action to take control of this nuclear programme.
b) No government in Pakistan can denuclearize Pakistan (even in case of military government, anyone trying to attempt this will face stiff resistance from within that could lead to a probable toppling).
c) Pakistan is neither Afghanistan nor Iraq, and a lot of countries strongly depend on Pakistan for a number of reasons. E.g. China wouldn't let anyone attack Pakistan just to decapitate Pakistan of her nukes (though nukes falling in the hands of Muslim terrorists in China is a fear for China too). But with these nukes in the hands of a government led by the Mullahs and China will have no other option but to approve a UN-led attack.
This is a real scary scenario and even if its probability could be less than 1%, it deserves our attention because the stakes are too high. Things seems grim but there certainly is a way out.
a) We should ensure that we honestly expose all the elements that were involved in the proliferation activities. And since none of them will be of the stature of Dr. Khan, should bring them to justice. This will help us regain credibility in the international community.
b) A strong diplomatic effort should be launched to up ease friends that we wouldn't let our territory to be used for any extremist activities.
c) We should ensure to make Pakistan a liberal state with high respect for human rights, democracy and freedom of thought.
d) A Pakistan with strong institutions will help shed the fears of World in general.
e) We should try to establish a Pakistani brand name in the industries that resound liberal (e.g. show biz, tourism, IT, music etc.)
f) We should all be committed to resist the fundamentalism and extremism in this country in every possible way to the fullest of our capacity not because Musharaf says so but because this is what we really have to do. Their attempts to brainwash the children and youth to be fanatics should be dealt with a powerful campaign to influence people by showing them what is right and what is wrong.
g) In the political field, the mullah must be dealt politically and not by mere words. In the process, the liberal forces must retain a high moral ground.
To me, it is too late to convince US that we are innocent or we will remain innocent in the future. It is about convincing the International community in general, especially our friends and regional powers.
The purpose of putting this on the blog is to encourage a healthy debate on the issue. Please let me know what you feel about this and why you feel so? A collective discussion and sharing of ideas might help us reach concrete conclusions.
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