IndoPak War - Probabilities and Permutation
I never wanted to write this post. I wish things had never came to the point which merits pondering of such thoughts. But alas they have and so this should be penned.
Let us analyze where things are heading. First and foremost, it seems someone is trying to drag India into a war. I say India, whosoever is behind Mumbai attacks and post-Mumbai attacks developments, is aiming to provoke India to be aggressive and consider military option. The provocation caused by Mumbai carnage, followed by media madness (equally followed by the same madness in Pakistan) and hysteria created by defense analysts and extremist elements in India, seems more and more like playing in the hands of provokers. If aim of Mumbai attacks was to provoke India, terrorists (or whosoever it was) is succeeding. And India must learn from lessons of provoked invasions of last 6 years (Lebanon and Iraq) where someone provoked the war which ended up strengthening the Islamic extremists in both places.
Unlike the popular belief, I think war is more probable than it has ever been in my life time. Needless to say, this war can turn into a nuclear conflict which not only can destroy both countries but will also suck in global powers into the conflict. Specially with western forces presence in Afghanistan and China neighboring both India and Pakistan, it will be very difficult for global powers to stay neutral.
Some analysts think that escalation will lead to some limited strikes by India and may be some reciprocal response by Pakistan. Knowing Pakistan as I know it, if India does limited surgical strikes, it will be impossible for Pakistani government to stay silent. Pakistan will respond. If civilian government shows restraint, there most likely will be a military takeover, by either top brass or mid-rank officers (who can be fundamentalists too). Of course, a response to strikes will follow the takeover. Also, if Pakistan responds to Indian incursions, Indian government will look weak if it doesn't take things to next level. Very hard to do for an Indian government. And this cycle if started will be out of control and will lead to a full-scale war. So those military minds who are selling this theory of limited strikes are laying a trap for both governments which will ultimately lead to a full-scale war.
If war happens, it has a potential of getting nuclear even for threat of some localized military retreats. If it stays conventional, and we buy the conventional warfare estimates, Indian Army is likely to have an upper hand in Pakistan. Global powers, allied with Pakistan including China and West, will have two options then. Either stay inactive or support Pakistan.
If allies stay inactive, first threat will be that Pakistan Army will have to make peace with Taliban and other Jihadi militias. If that happens and war ends inconclusive or in stalemate, this means end of democracy in Pakistan and fundamentalist takeover of Pakistan, in the wake of Army being marginalized and shattered in a war fought in isolation and rising influence of fundamentalists won through fighting India (remember Hizb Ullah's popularity surge in Lebanon post Israel-Lebanon war). A fundo controlled Pakistan is not what the doctor has ordered for either West or China or even for India.
Even if going by the conventional war theories, India crushes Pakistan Army, it will be left with three options. Either to control Pakistan on her own, seek a UN sanctioned control, or divide it to create friendly regimes. If India decides to control Pakistan on her own, it will have to deal with the most sophisticated Jihadi insurgency in the world. Keeping in view India's past experience of dealing with insurgencies, this certainly wouldn't be a wise option.
If India decides to divide Pakistan and install friendly regimes, these regimes in many parts would lack credibility because of predominant anti-India sentiment. In NWFP, Northern Balochistan, South Punjab and Karachi, in the absence of Pakistani security apparatus (of course destroyed in case of this scenario) will either fall to Taliban or will erupt in worst civil war spreading beyond borders. Also, any rise of extremist elements in Pakistan (evident in case of collapse of Pakistan's security apparatus in case of India's domination) will give morale boast to Muslim fundamentalists all across the region, including India and will radicalize the Muslim populations even further.
And at a time when US and West are trying to pack bags from Afghanistan and Iraq, it probably wouldn't be a good time for a UN mandated authority fighting extremists and separatist movements. I say this with a heavy heart (for things have become way more complex in my homeland), but if Iraq was a nightmare, for its complexity Pakistan will be a hell.
In case of a war, the best possible outcome for Pakistan's allies, specially because of their concern for War on Terror will be, to ensure that Pakistan gives a resilient response to Indians under liberal political and military leadership while fighting Taliban at the same time. This will require extensive financial, diplomatic and military assistance. This help might be their support-winner with Pakistani public in War on Terror. I am not sure whether they will do it or not though the alternatives for them look very uncomfortable. If at all, they decide to support Pakistan, specially West, it will be a hard sell to their domestic constituencies as well.
Then there is this beating-all-odds option of Pakistan actually tackling Indian aggression effectively on its own - which surely is not something India would want.
Also, whether we accept Indian claim that the insurgencies in India are perpetrated by ISI or not, there is a high likelihood that insurgency movements will try to make the best of Indian army's engagement with Pakistan and thus will erupt. This too is not something India will desire.
Logic and rational suggest that India is better of not going the war route. Military strikes will either be counter-productive or will most likely lead to a full-scale war. Pakistan's civilian and military leadership has shown restraint. If it leads to surgical strikes, it will suck Pakistan and India into a war. If the rogue elements who carried out Mumbai attacks were rooted in Pakistan, Pakistan government should be helped in eliminating them. No Pakistan government can look to act under Indian pressure. So, it has to be cooperation and sharing of substantial evidence and toning down of rhetoric by New Delhi.
Media in Pakistan, as in India is trying to provoke the public sentiment. Luckily, general sentiment in Pakistan, though angry at India, is to avoid war at every cost. There are political elements and Jihadis who seem to benefit from the current crisis and are trying to provoke the sentiments. There are elements within Pakistani establishment who want to use this opportunity to uproot democracy.
Right now the world's best bet to check the menace of Jihadis is Pakistan Army. In absence of Pakistan and Pakistan Army, this Jihadi mess will be uncontrollable for the region and for the world. It needs to be strengthened and on its part it needs to be subservient to civilian control, needs to have support of masses, and needs to reform itself to uproot the rogue elements. Pakistan currently is undergoing major security establishment reforms to uproot these very rogue elements and bring some checks and balances to a branch of government which has run wild for last 60 years across the globe. Obama administration is working on a major CIA and security apparatus overhaul aimed at controls. It probably is about time that India initiates this too. Rogue elements exist in every defense establishment. In case of Pakistan, they exposed themselves fully. But they need to tamed in countries like India to. This should be next item on the agenda of those who run our world.
P.S. In no way do intend to stress that this merits Pakistan going to war. In all likely outcomes, Pakistan has very low probability of surviving a nuclear or conventional war. It's a time to show restraint as is rightly done by us except the media.
Let us analyze where things are heading. First and foremost, it seems someone is trying to drag India into a war. I say India, whosoever is behind Mumbai attacks and post-Mumbai attacks developments, is aiming to provoke India to be aggressive and consider military option. The provocation caused by Mumbai carnage, followed by media madness (equally followed by the same madness in Pakistan) and hysteria created by defense analysts and extremist elements in India, seems more and more like playing in the hands of provokers. If aim of Mumbai attacks was to provoke India, terrorists (or whosoever it was) is succeeding. And India must learn from lessons of provoked invasions of last 6 years (Lebanon and Iraq) where someone provoked the war which ended up strengthening the Islamic extremists in both places.
Unlike the popular belief, I think war is more probable than it has ever been in my life time. Needless to say, this war can turn into a nuclear conflict which not only can destroy both countries but will also suck in global powers into the conflict. Specially with western forces presence in Afghanistan and China neighboring both India and Pakistan, it will be very difficult for global powers to stay neutral.
Some analysts think that escalation will lead to some limited strikes by India and may be some reciprocal response by Pakistan. Knowing Pakistan as I know it, if India does limited surgical strikes, it will be impossible for Pakistani government to stay silent. Pakistan will respond. If civilian government shows restraint, there most likely will be a military takeover, by either top brass or mid-rank officers (who can be fundamentalists too). Of course, a response to strikes will follow the takeover. Also, if Pakistan responds to Indian incursions, Indian government will look weak if it doesn't take things to next level. Very hard to do for an Indian government. And this cycle if started will be out of control and will lead to a full-scale war. So those military minds who are selling this theory of limited strikes are laying a trap for both governments which will ultimately lead to a full-scale war.
If war happens, it has a potential of getting nuclear even for threat of some localized military retreats. If it stays conventional, and we buy the conventional warfare estimates, Indian Army is likely to have an upper hand in Pakistan. Global powers, allied with Pakistan including China and West, will have two options then. Either stay inactive or support Pakistan.
If allies stay inactive, first threat will be that Pakistan Army will have to make peace with Taliban and other Jihadi militias. If that happens and war ends inconclusive or in stalemate, this means end of democracy in Pakistan and fundamentalist takeover of Pakistan, in the wake of Army being marginalized and shattered in a war fought in isolation and rising influence of fundamentalists won through fighting India (remember Hizb Ullah's popularity surge in Lebanon post Israel-Lebanon war). A fundo controlled Pakistan is not what the doctor has ordered for either West or China or even for India.
Even if going by the conventional war theories, India crushes Pakistan Army, it will be left with three options. Either to control Pakistan on her own, seek a UN sanctioned control, or divide it to create friendly regimes. If India decides to control Pakistan on her own, it will have to deal with the most sophisticated Jihadi insurgency in the world. Keeping in view India's past experience of dealing with insurgencies, this certainly wouldn't be a wise option.
If India decides to divide Pakistan and install friendly regimes, these regimes in many parts would lack credibility because of predominant anti-India sentiment. In NWFP, Northern Balochistan, South Punjab and Karachi, in the absence of Pakistani security apparatus (of course destroyed in case of this scenario) will either fall to Taliban or will erupt in worst civil war spreading beyond borders. Also, any rise of extremist elements in Pakistan (evident in case of collapse of Pakistan's security apparatus in case of India's domination) will give morale boast to Muslim fundamentalists all across the region, including India and will radicalize the Muslim populations even further.
And at a time when US and West are trying to pack bags from Afghanistan and Iraq, it probably wouldn't be a good time for a UN mandated authority fighting extremists and separatist movements. I say this with a heavy heart (for things have become way more complex in my homeland), but if Iraq was a nightmare, for its complexity Pakistan will be a hell.
In case of a war, the best possible outcome for Pakistan's allies, specially because of their concern for War on Terror will be, to ensure that Pakistan gives a resilient response to Indians under liberal political and military leadership while fighting Taliban at the same time. This will require extensive financial, diplomatic and military assistance. This help might be their support-winner with Pakistani public in War on Terror. I am not sure whether they will do it or not though the alternatives for them look very uncomfortable. If at all, they decide to support Pakistan, specially West, it will be a hard sell to their domestic constituencies as well.
Then there is this beating-all-odds option of Pakistan actually tackling Indian aggression effectively on its own - which surely is not something India would want.
Also, whether we accept Indian claim that the insurgencies in India are perpetrated by ISI or not, there is a high likelihood that insurgency movements will try to make the best of Indian army's engagement with Pakistan and thus will erupt. This too is not something India will desire.
Logic and rational suggest that India is better of not going the war route. Military strikes will either be counter-productive or will most likely lead to a full-scale war. Pakistan's civilian and military leadership has shown restraint. If it leads to surgical strikes, it will suck Pakistan and India into a war. If the rogue elements who carried out Mumbai attacks were rooted in Pakistan, Pakistan government should be helped in eliminating them. No Pakistan government can look to act under Indian pressure. So, it has to be cooperation and sharing of substantial evidence and toning down of rhetoric by New Delhi.
Media in Pakistan, as in India is trying to provoke the public sentiment. Luckily, general sentiment in Pakistan, though angry at India, is to avoid war at every cost. There are political elements and Jihadis who seem to benefit from the current crisis and are trying to provoke the sentiments. There are elements within Pakistani establishment who want to use this opportunity to uproot democracy.
Right now the world's best bet to check the menace of Jihadis is Pakistan Army. In absence of Pakistan and Pakistan Army, this Jihadi mess will be uncontrollable for the region and for the world. It needs to be strengthened and on its part it needs to be subservient to civilian control, needs to have support of masses, and needs to reform itself to uproot the rogue elements. Pakistan currently is undergoing major security establishment reforms to uproot these very rogue elements and bring some checks and balances to a branch of government which has run wild for last 60 years across the globe. Obama administration is working on a major CIA and security apparatus overhaul aimed at controls. It probably is about time that India initiates this too. Rogue elements exist in every defense establishment. In case of Pakistan, they exposed themselves fully. But they need to tamed in countries like India to. This should be next item on the agenda of those who run our world.
P.S. In no way do intend to stress that this merits Pakistan going to war. In all likely outcomes, Pakistan has very low probability of surviving a nuclear or conventional war. It's a time to show restraint as is rightly done by us except the media.
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