Power Structure of Pakistan and What Should Nawaz Sharif Do?
First and foremost, my heartfelt condolences to Mian Iftikhar Husain, whose son was gunned down by the terrorists. It is yet another example of the sacrifice, the liberal political leadership of this country is giving to save this country from falling into the darkness of Talibanization.
Secondly, regarding the extension of General Kayani, the information I had was that all the stakeholders wanted to give General the extension and he was a little apprehensive in accepting it. If my sources are to be believed the decision of extension was finalized around May and coincided with General's visit to Washington D.C. Just when United States was interested in ensuring an extension of General's tenure, it was also desired by the ruling coalition here in Pakistan. The extension, unlike an extension of a previous liberal, professional soldier Gen. Kakar, was not going to draw strong criticism from the opposition as well. Despite some criticism from Jamat-i-Islami, the response more or less will be muted. Though the extension will go in PML-N as a setback to their attempts at a mid-term change or securing a ruling majority in the 2013 elections through a hidden hand, it also offers them something. This extension has clipped the wings of Pervez Musharraf even before his flight. For Gen. Kayani as COAS will ensure that Musharraf does not portray himself as candidate of all powerful military establishment and savior of Army's interest in the power structure.
As for Nawaz Sharif, rather than being disappointed at the current shape of events, he should see them favorably. It seems that the Mian Sahab, ever since his arrival back from Jeddah is doing politics on wrong hypothesis. Even after the debacle of Punjab Assembly last week, where Mian Sahab has ruined his credibility as a leader by ditching his own peck, he might do himself a lot of political good if he could get some basis right.
First and foremost, it is Pakistan of 2010 and not 80s or 90s. It seems that the politics and policies of Mians is stuck in a decade old political framework. Schemes like sasti roti might have been a way out in 90s for Mian Sahab's urban middle class constituency but people here do not need such gimmicks now. Globalization has exposed people in general and Mian's constituency in particular to an endless economic opportunity. They do not need government to be a big nanny taking care of them. They now need a government which could simplify the bureaucratic procedures for them by weakening the hold of bureaucracy and with the wealth they have attained in recent months, they want to have entertainment without the fear of being harassed by the police. Mians are doing exactly the opposite under their authority. This has led to undermining of their popularity as well as an increase in corruption and mismanagement in the lower ranks of bureaucracy.
Second miscalculation which probably is the biggest miscalculation on part of Mians is their inability to understand the new power structure. The new power structure, because of the way it has emerged, will have PPP as the party of order. Now there is a room for one or more parties of order besides PPP but the structure cannot work without PPP, and so Mians' hope that they will go back to the heydays of 90s where they were the only party of the order are unrealistic. If Mians could correct this second miscalculation, it should lead to another realization - a bitter one but better be faced than put under the carpet.
In the current power setup, no one is equipped to take on PPP politically. The only way it can be thrown out is through a military coup and the probability of it is close to negligible (except for a mid-rank Islamist coup which would destroy it all for everyone). First, why do I say no one can take on PPP politically? Flashback, 80s and 90s. In a post Zia era, with highly controlled polity and electoral process by the establishment and PPP feeling the brunt of establishment's wrath, it had taken the alliance of all electoral politics political parties (ALL) to deny PPP a victory in general elections. Be it 1990 or 1997, PPP was facing an alliance of ANP, MQM, religious right, and key Baloch nationalists to take on PPP - needless to say there was a unified Muslim League with all its constituency candidates (Junejo was in, in 1990). Even if we ignore the acquisitions of rigging in those elections, the mere fact that it took all to bring down one, says a lot about this country's electoral politics and it is a fact the political parties should acknowledge before making political moves.
It is no 90s and I see it unlikely that PPP could be thrown out of the new power structure that has emerged in Pakistan. And just when there is role for other players in the structure, the playing field will be level for PPP this time around and so, at least in the foreseeable future, it seems hard to bring down PPP. Mind you, PPP has won all by-polls since it came to power and that includes the Dasti poll where all the power of media and judiciary was against it and Multan poll where the son of the Prime Minister had to face the wrath of Punjab Police for a few hours.
If Mians could acknowledge these realities, the political planning will become much easier for them. Their first task should be and should have been to bring as much of League into their fold as they can. With Musharraf out of the field, thanks to the extension to Gen. Kayani, they will have to battle Chaudharys. They have lost their opportunity of an alliance with Chaudharys already. The differences between leagues are of power and personality and seem unlikely to be bridged. If my sources are to believed, Mian Sahab held indirect talks with Musharraf camp during his present trip to London which got stuck on key issues. Sources reveal that the reason Hamza accompanied Mian Sahab was because he is the only one from family who had channels in Musharraf camp by virtue of being the only one present in Pakistan during General's rule.
In absence of any opportunity of an alliance on their terms, Chaudharys will see more benefit in distancing from Mians, with PPP at the helm of affairs and in control now. Also, PPP is the only party which can do seat adjustment with all potential Leagues in the 2013 polls. It has not burnt its bridges with Musharraf or Hamkhayals or Functional. It has been on good terms with Q and Chaudharys, and above all it has remained close enough to PML-N to let the latter fall astray. Add to it the South Punjab card, a card that makes Sindh Card look dull and it sure seems to have an upper hand vis-a-vis Leagues.
Any snap election pre-2013 seems unlikely and for 2013 elections, keeping in view the power structure of Pakistan and the politics of PMLs, the best bet for any League willing to extend its political hold in Punjab is to be closer to PPP rather than confronting it and thus denying herself the perks of federal bounty and sabotaging any chances of seat adjustment/ post-election alliances with PPP.
The name of the game for Mians is to consolidate and redefine themselves as a party of liberal right in sync with the realities of 21st century Pakistan. Opposition for the sake of opposition and playing for media is only making them ineffective administratively and eroding the support among the constituency candidates. If they want to have a dent in PPP's vote bank and national reach, it will be done not by confronting them but being close to the later. Human are by nature tribal and loyal and to lure them you have to befriend their tribe rather than confront it - for with confrontation you leave yourself one option conquest and it would no good in vote bank politics. He should also realize that the foreign friendships can only let you land the Karachi/ Lahore airport, the tough path to the power from thereon is for you to traverse. Wait, realignment and consolidation is the name of the game for Nawaz Sharif. His moments will come his way, he just needs to be ready and wait for them rather than conspire in haste.
As for PPP and the President, part luck part patience has delivered them a hand they can marvel. They are in safe, enjoying and bearing the transformation into the new party of the order. At this pace, it is just a matter of time when the media and elite which has identified itself with establishment will start coming to them. After fighting three decades for survival, PPP can finally start focusing on governance.
P.S. Reaction of liberal left to Gen. Kayani's extension was understandable. But the strongest reaction is coming from the religious right and journalists and generals thought to be close to ISI. This indicates that though in control at the very top, COAS has not been able to tame the intelligence agency fully. The security establishment of Pakistan comprises three classes. The religious ideologues, the modernists and a silent majority. It's this silent majority which holds the balance of power and though getting inclined to an anti-Taliban view, still holds dear the cliches of strategic depth, hatred towards India and a duty to "Islam". How this fragile balance plays up will determine the course of Pakistan and the region. For now, as per me, threat of a rebellion of fundamentalists in military is HIGH.
Secondly, regarding the extension of General Kayani, the information I had was that all the stakeholders wanted to give General the extension and he was a little apprehensive in accepting it. If my sources are to be believed the decision of extension was finalized around May and coincided with General's visit to Washington D.C. Just when United States was interested in ensuring an extension of General's tenure, it was also desired by the ruling coalition here in Pakistan. The extension, unlike an extension of a previous liberal, professional soldier Gen. Kakar, was not going to draw strong criticism from the opposition as well. Despite some criticism from Jamat-i-Islami, the response more or less will be muted. Though the extension will go in PML-N as a setback to their attempts at a mid-term change or securing a ruling majority in the 2013 elections through a hidden hand, it also offers them something. This extension has clipped the wings of Pervez Musharraf even before his flight. For Gen. Kayani as COAS will ensure that Musharraf does not portray himself as candidate of all powerful military establishment and savior of Army's interest in the power structure.
As for Nawaz Sharif, rather than being disappointed at the current shape of events, he should see them favorably. It seems that the Mian Sahab, ever since his arrival back from Jeddah is doing politics on wrong hypothesis. Even after the debacle of Punjab Assembly last week, where Mian Sahab has ruined his credibility as a leader by ditching his own peck, he might do himself a lot of political good if he could get some basis right.
First and foremost, it is Pakistan of 2010 and not 80s or 90s. It seems that the politics and policies of Mians is stuck in a decade old political framework. Schemes like sasti roti might have been a way out in 90s for Mian Sahab's urban middle class constituency but people here do not need such gimmicks now. Globalization has exposed people in general and Mian's constituency in particular to an endless economic opportunity. They do not need government to be a big nanny taking care of them. They now need a government which could simplify the bureaucratic procedures for them by weakening the hold of bureaucracy and with the wealth they have attained in recent months, they want to have entertainment without the fear of being harassed by the police. Mians are doing exactly the opposite under their authority. This has led to undermining of their popularity as well as an increase in corruption and mismanagement in the lower ranks of bureaucracy.
Second miscalculation which probably is the biggest miscalculation on part of Mians is their inability to understand the new power structure. The new power structure, because of the way it has emerged, will have PPP as the party of order. Now there is a room for one or more parties of order besides PPP but the structure cannot work without PPP, and so Mians' hope that they will go back to the heydays of 90s where they were the only party of the order are unrealistic. If Mians could correct this second miscalculation, it should lead to another realization - a bitter one but better be faced than put under the carpet.
In the current power setup, no one is equipped to take on PPP politically. The only way it can be thrown out is through a military coup and the probability of it is close to negligible (except for a mid-rank Islamist coup which would destroy it all for everyone). First, why do I say no one can take on PPP politically? Flashback, 80s and 90s. In a post Zia era, with highly controlled polity and electoral process by the establishment and PPP feeling the brunt of establishment's wrath, it had taken the alliance of all electoral politics political parties (ALL) to deny PPP a victory in general elections. Be it 1990 or 1997, PPP was facing an alliance of ANP, MQM, religious right, and key Baloch nationalists to take on PPP - needless to say there was a unified Muslim League with all its constituency candidates (Junejo was in, in 1990). Even if we ignore the acquisitions of rigging in those elections, the mere fact that it took all to bring down one, says a lot about this country's electoral politics and it is a fact the political parties should acknowledge before making political moves.
It is no 90s and I see it unlikely that PPP could be thrown out of the new power structure that has emerged in Pakistan. And just when there is role for other players in the structure, the playing field will be level for PPP this time around and so, at least in the foreseeable future, it seems hard to bring down PPP. Mind you, PPP has won all by-polls since it came to power and that includes the Dasti poll where all the power of media and judiciary was against it and Multan poll where the son of the Prime Minister had to face the wrath of Punjab Police for a few hours.
If Mians could acknowledge these realities, the political planning will become much easier for them. Their first task should be and should have been to bring as much of League into their fold as they can. With Musharraf out of the field, thanks to the extension to Gen. Kayani, they will have to battle Chaudharys. They have lost their opportunity of an alliance with Chaudharys already. The differences between leagues are of power and personality and seem unlikely to be bridged. If my sources are to believed, Mian Sahab held indirect talks with Musharraf camp during his present trip to London which got stuck on key issues. Sources reveal that the reason Hamza accompanied Mian Sahab was because he is the only one from family who had channels in Musharraf camp by virtue of being the only one present in Pakistan during General's rule.
In absence of any opportunity of an alliance on their terms, Chaudharys will see more benefit in distancing from Mians, with PPP at the helm of affairs and in control now. Also, PPP is the only party which can do seat adjustment with all potential Leagues in the 2013 polls. It has not burnt its bridges with Musharraf or Hamkhayals or Functional. It has been on good terms with Q and Chaudharys, and above all it has remained close enough to PML-N to let the latter fall astray. Add to it the South Punjab card, a card that makes Sindh Card look dull and it sure seems to have an upper hand vis-a-vis Leagues.
Any snap election pre-2013 seems unlikely and for 2013 elections, keeping in view the power structure of Pakistan and the politics of PMLs, the best bet for any League willing to extend its political hold in Punjab is to be closer to PPP rather than confronting it and thus denying herself the perks of federal bounty and sabotaging any chances of seat adjustment/ post-election alliances with PPP.
The name of the game for Mians is to consolidate and redefine themselves as a party of liberal right in sync with the realities of 21st century Pakistan. Opposition for the sake of opposition and playing for media is only making them ineffective administratively and eroding the support among the constituency candidates. If they want to have a dent in PPP's vote bank and national reach, it will be done not by confronting them but being close to the later. Human are by nature tribal and loyal and to lure them you have to befriend their tribe rather than confront it - for with confrontation you leave yourself one option conquest and it would no good in vote bank politics. He should also realize that the foreign friendships can only let you land the Karachi/ Lahore airport, the tough path to the power from thereon is for you to traverse. Wait, realignment and consolidation is the name of the game for Nawaz Sharif. His moments will come his way, he just needs to be ready and wait for them rather than conspire in haste.
As for PPP and the President, part luck part patience has delivered them a hand they can marvel. They are in safe, enjoying and bearing the transformation into the new party of the order. At this pace, it is just a matter of time when the media and elite which has identified itself with establishment will start coming to them. After fighting three decades for survival, PPP can finally start focusing on governance.
P.S. Reaction of liberal left to Gen. Kayani's extension was understandable. But the strongest reaction is coming from the religious right and journalists and generals thought to be close to ISI. This indicates that though in control at the very top, COAS has not been able to tame the intelligence agency fully. The security establishment of Pakistan comprises three classes. The religious ideologues, the modernists and a silent majority. It's this silent majority which holds the balance of power and though getting inclined to an anti-Taliban view, still holds dear the cliches of strategic depth, hatred towards India and a duty to "Islam". How this fragile balance plays up will determine the course of Pakistan and the region. For now, as per me, threat of a rebellion of fundamentalists in military is HIGH.
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