Nawaz Sharif's Moment of Disgrace!
Nawaz Sharif has come out fully exposed. There is not even an iota of doubt now as to who is behind the current political turmoil. Unlike the few previous turmoils, where he did not let himself be fully exposed, he has come out with gloves off. It in a way is good, for now, on the table where every power player was upping the antes, now the time for show is here.
I am not surprised at Nawaz's rush to the show. Circumstances and political events taking place in last two months made this move more and more inevitable. The political space in which he is operating is getting more and more squeezed and so his act had to be one of desperation. First, even if his supporters would deny it and even if the political pundits on idiot box would portray otherwise, Nawaz's mandate in 2008 elections was partly engineered. Lot of his candidates were given a favorable push in areas of north and central Punjab (only two areas in the whole country where he has political presence) at the expense of PML-Q and PPP. More so, he won those areas to saturation and from here on he can either retain them or lose them but cannot gain. Any of his gains had to come from other areas and we have seen his inability to move and get support anywhere else. And even in his strongholds, he is losing ground. In last six months, he lost Mansehra, Bahawalpur, Sargodha and Gujranwala. The trend seems to be persisting. PPP and PML-Q are gaining in electoral politics at his expense. And if the system continues, next election seems to be a real nightmare for Sharif of Jeddah. His main worry is the squeeze in Punjab and thus his main targets this time are Babar Awan and Governor Taseer.
Another issue hastening his move was the extension of Gen. Kiyani which signaled continuation of the system of which General has been one of the architect. More so, Nawaz Sharif, for his ways of ruling in 90s has become a unreliable figure among some elements in the Armed Forces and he hoped that as more and more officers retire, he will have a chance to click again with the Army. Contrary to this aversion, because of him being the head of Zia-Ul-Haq (fundo) oligarchy, he does have sympathizers in Army and establishment and uses these sympathizers to exert influence on Army leadership for a political change. Third is floods, which in his calculation has made PPP strongholds paralyzed and might have caused loss of support for PPP. So for him time to act is now and is ripe. Forth is the rift developing between MQM and ANP/PPP over control of Karachi which offers a glimmer of hope for an in-house change.
There are a few broader issues which need to be understood before one gauges Nawaz Sharif and his political ambitions and maneuvers. One is the lingering issue of Americans' desire to have a more and more direct relation with Pakistan rather than seeing Pakistan through the prism of two friendly countries. This desire puts those countries at a significant loss of influence in Pakistan and they are trying tooth and nail to retain that influence. This change in policy comes at a time when the future of some of the key resources (material as well as logistic) has to be decided. Mr. Sharif is indebted to these countries for reasons personal and political. More so, he represents an oligarchy that represents the interests of Central Punjabi elite which has dominated business opportunities in Pakistan for last 5 decades and with the new economic opportunities in the country emerging mostly in the south of the country, the hegemony seems to be in threat. And last is the fact that under the democratic system without any blatant intervention (on the scale of 1990 or 1997), he simply has no chance of having a majority in the National Assembly. You, of course, cannot end up ruling Pakistan by having presence in only 14 districts. So the only bet is to destabilize the system and hope that in the chaos, through his backers in judiciary and Army, he gets a favorable deal. To me all the talk of Technocrat Government is a facade for the chaos to try to bring the Sharif of Jeddah at the helm of affairs once more.
These all longterm strategic objectives and short-term political circumstances have made Nawaz Sharif act against the democratic system right from its very inception. Just when his ministers were preparing to take oath for a coalition cabinet with PPP, his media managers were minting stories against PPP leadership. And since then he has not missed a single opportunity to undermine the system and the government.
Mr. Sharif (with help from clutches of media) pretends to be a democrat just when every action of his has been a stab at the democracy. Against the will of the majority of elected representatives in parliament, he got his judiciary restored through bureaucracy's mutiny in central Punjab. All his rhetoric starts and ends with talk of Charter of Democracy and he still accuses PPP of not implementing it. Last I read the charter, all of it is implemented except the clauses regarding PCO Chief Justice for whom Mr. Sharif had a sudden change of heart. Then he talks about soft revolution, a term coined by the fundo maestro Gen. Hamid Gul. What I fail to understand is for a believer in the system (as he claims), how the talk of a revolution could make any sense? Recently, he has come up with the jargon of Charter of Pakistan. He failed to provide any details on this but what one gathers from word of mouth is that he wants government to reduce the term of NA to 4 years and also get rid of Babar Awan and Governor Taseer (who are squeezing him further and further every passing day).
He asserts that mid-term change is inevitable for the government has failed to deliver. What he forgets to mention is that compared to any other government, Punjab government has failed the most. No government in Pakistan is thus far running on an over-draft but Punjab's. No province in the country has people from different sects complain that the government is supporting terrorist outfits but of Punjab. No province has the law and order in shambles to the degree that brutal killings by mob become a common occurrence and Police takes pride in extra-judicial killings but Punjab. Needless to say that bulk of the scandals and stories of misconduct in this regime have come against PML-N members. Be it charges of rape or credit card theft or protecting gold smugglers or domestic violence or you name it. So if the system is failing, it is failing because of PML-N the most and so may be the change should be in Punjab.
Rhetoric aside, failure to deliver never is a pretext of ousting an elected government. George Bush's support reached to high 10s coupled with the worst economic collapse and two unpopular wars but no one in US demanded his resignation. 2/3rd of Brits according to surveys labelled Tony Blair a liar yet no one asked him to quit or call mid-term elections. Blair went into elections, won them and then it was his own Labour Party which ultimately forced him to give way to Gordon Brown. And in last two and a half years, no disaster of ours matches the shame that the preparation of Commonwealth Games brought on India, but no one calling for a regime/system change there. This is how democracies work. Mandate, delivering or not, is for the full term. In the term, the party/ alliance in power has the free hand to implement policies, introduce legislation and appoint officials. If we have to have a go at the true democracy, that is the route for us. If the government will deliver, it will get reelected. If it will not, it will be wiped out in the next elections. In the mid-way if the government loses the confidence of the house, it be replaced. This is how the democracy works. Any other demands (including intervention through courts) is undemocratic and unconstitutional. And no matter how many anchors and pundits you have as sympathizers or on your payroll, this does not change the reality. Upholding this fundamental principle of democracy is the basic test for any democrat in Pakistan. If we want the system to be strengthened, this is the only way.
Nawaz's desires are not only unprincipled, they are impractical as well. If he thinks that in the present circumstances, he, through his Punjabi judges and his influence in the ranks and files of the Army, can derail the government, he is seriously mistaken. Any such action will at least lead to the resentment with in the minor provinces (whose charge-sheet against Punjab and Establishment is ever growing) and at the most will lead to an all out civil war. Results of both will be disastrous for Pakistan's federation and the social fabric of the societies we live in. We all know where our federation was in the last days of 2007 and the improvement in it is attributed only to the noise and chaos of the democracy. Democracy taken out and we will fall even lower.
Nawaz, of course, is in no position to muster a no confidence move. His attempt is to create pressure through undemocratic tactics through influence in media and judiciary and secure some unprincipled political gains. He has been trying it from the day one of the present setup and every time he tries it the only thing I fear for is a coup with in the Army in the chaos that ensues. He and his fellow judges, in the process, have made a mockery of the country's justice system. Clear, comprehensive clauses of constitution have been given twist in manner which even shames the spin doctors of Nazis. The apex courts in the country seem to have performing only one task and that is to undermine the PPP. As my good friend Kashif Ul Haq says, we, the urban Punjabis, cheered when Zia came or when Musharraf came, in hindsight we call them our darkest days, let the dust settle and the present day encroachments of judiciary and media will make us regret too.
Nawaz Sharif has tried his cheeky tactics all along yet rather than getting stronger he is becoming weaker and weaker. He should take a pause and ask himself whether post-restoration of his judiciary, he has become stronger or weaker politically. The journey from there on has been downhill for him - he losing more and more space to his political opponents in Punjab and Mansehra. Any cheeky tactics for short-term gains are not going to help him in the future either. Democracy is here to stay and so is the new power equation with in the country and with the foreign powers. His best bet is to be part of the system and play by the rules. For this, he will have to come out of the womb of the Kangaroo Courts and will have to shun the media steroids. He will have to reinvent himself as a true democrat for now for a claimant of being a democrat, this is his epic moment of disgrace for the historians of future.
I am not surprised at Nawaz's rush to the show. Circumstances and political events taking place in last two months made this move more and more inevitable. The political space in which he is operating is getting more and more squeezed and so his act had to be one of desperation. First, even if his supporters would deny it and even if the political pundits on idiot box would portray otherwise, Nawaz's mandate in 2008 elections was partly engineered. Lot of his candidates were given a favorable push in areas of north and central Punjab (only two areas in the whole country where he has political presence) at the expense of PML-Q and PPP. More so, he won those areas to saturation and from here on he can either retain them or lose them but cannot gain. Any of his gains had to come from other areas and we have seen his inability to move and get support anywhere else. And even in his strongholds, he is losing ground. In last six months, he lost Mansehra, Bahawalpur, Sargodha and Gujranwala. The trend seems to be persisting. PPP and PML-Q are gaining in electoral politics at his expense. And if the system continues, next election seems to be a real nightmare for Sharif of Jeddah. His main worry is the squeeze in Punjab and thus his main targets this time are Babar Awan and Governor Taseer.
Another issue hastening his move was the extension of Gen. Kiyani which signaled continuation of the system of which General has been one of the architect. More so, Nawaz Sharif, for his ways of ruling in 90s has become a unreliable figure among some elements in the Armed Forces and he hoped that as more and more officers retire, he will have a chance to click again with the Army. Contrary to this aversion, because of him being the head of Zia-Ul-Haq (fundo) oligarchy, he does have sympathizers in Army and establishment and uses these sympathizers to exert influence on Army leadership for a political change. Third is floods, which in his calculation has made PPP strongholds paralyzed and might have caused loss of support for PPP. So for him time to act is now and is ripe. Forth is the rift developing between MQM and ANP/PPP over control of Karachi which offers a glimmer of hope for an in-house change.
There are a few broader issues which need to be understood before one gauges Nawaz Sharif and his political ambitions and maneuvers. One is the lingering issue of Americans' desire to have a more and more direct relation with Pakistan rather than seeing Pakistan through the prism of two friendly countries. This desire puts those countries at a significant loss of influence in Pakistan and they are trying tooth and nail to retain that influence. This change in policy comes at a time when the future of some of the key resources (material as well as logistic) has to be decided. Mr. Sharif is indebted to these countries for reasons personal and political. More so, he represents an oligarchy that represents the interests of Central Punjabi elite which has dominated business opportunities in Pakistan for last 5 decades and with the new economic opportunities in the country emerging mostly in the south of the country, the hegemony seems to be in threat. And last is the fact that under the democratic system without any blatant intervention (on the scale of 1990 or 1997), he simply has no chance of having a majority in the National Assembly. You, of course, cannot end up ruling Pakistan by having presence in only 14 districts. So the only bet is to destabilize the system and hope that in the chaos, through his backers in judiciary and Army, he gets a favorable deal. To me all the talk of Technocrat Government is a facade for the chaos to try to bring the Sharif of Jeddah at the helm of affairs once more.
These all longterm strategic objectives and short-term political circumstances have made Nawaz Sharif act against the democratic system right from its very inception. Just when his ministers were preparing to take oath for a coalition cabinet with PPP, his media managers were minting stories against PPP leadership. And since then he has not missed a single opportunity to undermine the system and the government.
Mr. Sharif (with help from clutches of media) pretends to be a democrat just when every action of his has been a stab at the democracy. Against the will of the majority of elected representatives in parliament, he got his judiciary restored through bureaucracy's mutiny in central Punjab. All his rhetoric starts and ends with talk of Charter of Democracy and he still accuses PPP of not implementing it. Last I read the charter, all of it is implemented except the clauses regarding PCO Chief Justice for whom Mr. Sharif had a sudden change of heart. Then he talks about soft revolution, a term coined by the fundo maestro Gen. Hamid Gul. What I fail to understand is for a believer in the system (as he claims), how the talk of a revolution could make any sense? Recently, he has come up with the jargon of Charter of Pakistan. He failed to provide any details on this but what one gathers from word of mouth is that he wants government to reduce the term of NA to 4 years and also get rid of Babar Awan and Governor Taseer (who are squeezing him further and further every passing day).
He asserts that mid-term change is inevitable for the government has failed to deliver. What he forgets to mention is that compared to any other government, Punjab government has failed the most. No government in Pakistan is thus far running on an over-draft but Punjab's. No province in the country has people from different sects complain that the government is supporting terrorist outfits but of Punjab. No province has the law and order in shambles to the degree that brutal killings by mob become a common occurrence and Police takes pride in extra-judicial killings but Punjab. Needless to say that bulk of the scandals and stories of misconduct in this regime have come against PML-N members. Be it charges of rape or credit card theft or protecting gold smugglers or domestic violence or you name it. So if the system is failing, it is failing because of PML-N the most and so may be the change should be in Punjab.
Rhetoric aside, failure to deliver never is a pretext of ousting an elected government. George Bush's support reached to high 10s coupled with the worst economic collapse and two unpopular wars but no one in US demanded his resignation. 2/3rd of Brits according to surveys labelled Tony Blair a liar yet no one asked him to quit or call mid-term elections. Blair went into elections, won them and then it was his own Labour Party which ultimately forced him to give way to Gordon Brown. And in last two and a half years, no disaster of ours matches the shame that the preparation of Commonwealth Games brought on India, but no one calling for a regime/system change there. This is how democracies work. Mandate, delivering or not, is for the full term. In the term, the party/ alliance in power has the free hand to implement policies, introduce legislation and appoint officials. If we have to have a go at the true democracy, that is the route for us. If the government will deliver, it will get reelected. If it will not, it will be wiped out in the next elections. In the mid-way if the government loses the confidence of the house, it be replaced. This is how the democracy works. Any other demands (including intervention through courts) is undemocratic and unconstitutional. And no matter how many anchors and pundits you have as sympathizers or on your payroll, this does not change the reality. Upholding this fundamental principle of democracy is the basic test for any democrat in Pakistan. If we want the system to be strengthened, this is the only way.
Nawaz's desires are not only unprincipled, they are impractical as well. If he thinks that in the present circumstances, he, through his Punjabi judges and his influence in the ranks and files of the Army, can derail the government, he is seriously mistaken. Any such action will at least lead to the resentment with in the minor provinces (whose charge-sheet against Punjab and Establishment is ever growing) and at the most will lead to an all out civil war. Results of both will be disastrous for Pakistan's federation and the social fabric of the societies we live in. We all know where our federation was in the last days of 2007 and the improvement in it is attributed only to the noise and chaos of the democracy. Democracy taken out and we will fall even lower.
Nawaz, of course, is in no position to muster a no confidence move. His attempt is to create pressure through undemocratic tactics through influence in media and judiciary and secure some unprincipled political gains. He has been trying it from the day one of the present setup and every time he tries it the only thing I fear for is a coup with in the Army in the chaos that ensues. He and his fellow judges, in the process, have made a mockery of the country's justice system. Clear, comprehensive clauses of constitution have been given twist in manner which even shames the spin doctors of Nazis. The apex courts in the country seem to have performing only one task and that is to undermine the PPP. As my good friend Kashif Ul Haq says, we, the urban Punjabis, cheered when Zia came or when Musharraf came, in hindsight we call them our darkest days, let the dust settle and the present day encroachments of judiciary and media will make us regret too.
Nawaz Sharif has tried his cheeky tactics all along yet rather than getting stronger he is becoming weaker and weaker. He should take a pause and ask himself whether post-restoration of his judiciary, he has become stronger or weaker politically. The journey from there on has been downhill for him - he losing more and more space to his political opponents in Punjab and Mansehra. Any cheeky tactics for short-term gains are not going to help him in the future either. Democracy is here to stay and so is the new power equation with in the country and with the foreign powers. His best bet is to be part of the system and play by the rules. For this, he will have to come out of the womb of the Kangaroo Courts and will have to shun the media steroids. He will have to reinvent himself as a true democrat for now for a claimant of being a democrat, this is his epic moment of disgrace for the historians of future.
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