Nawaz Sharif’s Moment of Statesmanship
Mansehra, Sargodha, Gujranwala and now Bahawalpur, if I were PML-N or their supporter, I would be going back to the drawing board and reviewing where one erred. The myth of even a Punjab-dominating (or 13 districts only party) is busting in the midst of electoral politics. One can keep denying it behind fake Gallup (Ijaz Gillani) surveys or the media steroids that lifted PML-N all along but it is about time that PML-N leadership and its leaders try analyzing what went wrong.
Before we delve into the troubles of PML-N and their cure, let us first analyze the political landscape. First and foremost, for all the media and right-wing propaganda, PPP is still strong and getting stronger. They won a seat in Bahawalpur with a huge margin of 26000 votes just when the Islamabadi media pundits prophesized their demise in the floods. The constituency is in South Punjab, an area affected worse by floods and the constituency itself is 50-60 miles from some of the flood affected areas. PPP victory there is a sign that hopes for a dent in its support base are extremely exaggerated and yet unfounded. Secondly, if the trend persists, which it has for last 2 years (even under Punjab Administration’s heavy hand and manipulations), it must be a relieving feeling for Chaudhary’s and PML-Q. Needless to say the PPP is the one that seems to be gaining the most. It does not end here. Next elections will be the first elections after 1977, where PPP will be having a regime conducting the elections that would not be bent on destroying PPP. More so, unlike 1977, this time PPP is friends with many a political parties rather than a foe. Above all, thanks to its politics of reconciliation, PPP is the only party in position to do local seat adjustments with any party. It has done seat adjustments with PML-N, PML-Q, ANP, PTI, PKMAP, Baloch Nationalist Parties and JUI in the by-elections. It also has not burnt its bridges with PML-Musharraf, MQM and JI. These factors are strengthening its position in the power structure of the country. Another cause of concern for PML-N should be the strengthening of PML-Q which has seen its worst in last general elections and has managed to survive, and can only go up from here. More so, the local alliances between Q and PPP are proving real thorny for PML-N.
Mian sahib realizes that his options san system are highly curtailed. He does not have the capacity to topple the government on his own. If anyone else does it, the chances are that Mian Sahib will also be dispatched. There are two entities that could disrupt the on-going system, Taliban and Army. Taliban are being dealt with forcefully by all forces of the system to curtail the threat of an overall takeover. And as far as the Army goes, the situation is not ripe for it to take control. If things lead to anarchy, the things will go in the hands of elements with firepower, Taliban in NWFP and Punjab, BLA etc and Taliban in Balochistan, MQM is Southern Sindh and a mesh of Taliban, Local Bandits and BLA in Balochistan. In none of the cases, Mian Sahib seems to be getting anything. Thus comes his strong and very forceful resistance to disruption of system, a resistance that is worth applauding.
This resistance to disruption of system and things like his brave stance on Ahmadis issue make me like Mian Sahib and it irks me that such a worthy element in the system is getting marginalized thanks to his hawkish policies in last two years. For one thing, Mian Sahib needs to come out of the influence of confrontational hawks surrounding him.
Post 2008 elections, Mian Sahib in reality was the only viable alternative to the then government (and not for proclamation by media or Gallup Pakistan). Yet in two years, his influence and power is on decline evident from by-poll defeats in his political strongholds where he and his party run administration. It surely is a time for him to take a pause and ask himself what went wrong.
I think his troubles trace back to his realization of the emerging system and emerging Pakistan. He failed to read the system that emerged after 2008 elections. He did not realize that 2008-onwards Pakistan is governed by a new order and PPP, by virtue of its national outreach and its vote bank will remain a central element of this system. The other elements within the system, for circumstances, were either willing to or have been forced to accept PPP as an insider. Like any political system, there was room for other players as well but the size would matter and also the days of PMLs and right-centric only Pakistani establishment were over. 2008 election has been the beginning of the gradual fading away of a right-centric establishment. If elements in military and intelligence failed to understand this, they can be pardoned for their lack of political acumen, but Mian Sahib misreading it calls for a serious contemplation.
His second miscalculation stemming from the first one was that the country will head for snap elections real soon. So his policies and maneuvers were short-sighted. It turns out that the system has proven to be more resilient than what pundits thought. His biggest mistake has been pulling out of the federal cabinet where his ministers enjoyed powerful portfolios. Moving out of the cabinet in hope of snap elections did not only diminish his influence in the federal government but also opened up avenues for PPP to reach out to Q League, MQM and other Pro-Musharraf elements. So if PPP is in a position to ally with all parties, left right and center, it should thank Mian Sahib for it.
His next folly came when he decided to side with Iftikhar Chaudhary rather than the democratically elected government. I am not debating the merits of his stance but as it turns out politically it is turning out to be a costly mistake. Yes he has got a favorable judiciary and decisions but he certainly did not get the credibility for them that he hoped for. What he failed to realize was that post-election, his first objective should have been to consolidate his grip on the right-wing of this country, specially Punjab. It required marginalizing Musharraf and PML-Q. This he could have done the best siding with PPP and not against it. He being an ally would have made it very hard for PPP to sell softening towards Q or MQM to its core constituency. Yet he opted for a confrontational course. This created rift between him and PPP. And this forced him to try to control Punjab at the expense of PPP rather than in collaboration with PPP. In a collaborative environment, PPP would have gained but Mian Sahib would have gained complete elimination of Q post-2008 elections.
Then were his party’s policies in Punjab which were driven by a desire to have short-term publicity gimmicks (miscalculating quick snap elections), and vengeance. First made a mockery of governance in Punjab and left the province cash-strapped. And latter threw more and more elements in bureaucracy and polity in the arms of PPP.
His is a star on decline and yet it can be recovered. His salvation lies in reconciliation and not confrontation. If he thinks a softening on PPP will be tough to sell to his constituency, he is underestimating the faith his loyal-base has in him. If he fears others in the right-wing like Imran Khan etc could take his political capital away from him, he must realize that no minos can take over a giant that he is. All of them put together are 0+0=0. What he should realize is that he should do what is sound in long-term and is the correct course for a stable Pakistan and system. All else will follow.
Analyzing the setbacks in core constituencies and knowing limitations, if I were Nawaz Sharif, I would be doing two things. Getting rid of hawks in my circle of advisors and party organization and picking up the telephone and calling the President offering him an era of cooperation and mutual trust. Pakistani nation will embrace this era – it just needs a heart of a statesman on part of Mian Sahib. Another moment of truth might come real soon for him in 18th amendment case. He has an opportunity to right some of his recent wrongs by siding with the parliament. An action contrary might give him short-term media applause but will neither disrupt the system nor will give him any real political mileage.
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